Jump to content

Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
2025
Opinion polls • By constituency
46th
Opinion polls

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2025 Canadian federal election leading up to the 46th Canadian federal election.

National polls

[edit]

Pre-campaign period

[edit]

Polling firm Last date of polling[a] Link LPC CPC BQ NDP GPC PPC Others[b] Margin of error[c] Sample size[d] Polling method[e] Lead
Nanos Research June 6, 2025 [1] 42.6 32.8 6.5 12.0 3.9 1.3 0.9 ±3.1 pp 1,079 Telephone 9.8
Abacus Data June 5, 2025 [2] 42 39 6 8 3 1 0 ±1.9 pp 2,585 Online 3
Ekos June 4, 2025 [3] 44 32 5 13 3 3 1 ±2.5 pp 1,529 IVR 12
Spark Insights May 30, 2025 [4] 41 40 7 8 — — 5 — 3,450 Online 1
Nanos Research May 30, 2025 [5] 41.7 36.4 6.5 10.5 3.4 1.1 0.3 ±3.0 pp 974 Telephone 5.3
Nanos Research May 23, 2025 [6] 40.4 38.6 5.9 9.8 3.7 1.3 0.3 ±3.0 pp 1,127 Telephone 1.8
Innovative Research May 22, 2025 [7] 42 39 6 8 3 2 — — 1,362 Online 3
Abacus Data May 21, 2025 [8] 41 40 7 8 3 1 0 ±2.1 pp 2,273 Online 1
Nanos Research May 16, 2025 [9] 41.4 39.6 4.7 8.5 3.9 1.3 0.6 ±2.9 pp 1,127 Telephone 1.8
Nanos Research May 9, 2025 [10] 41.5 40.5 5.1 7.8 3.3 1.3 0.5 ±2.8 pp 1,259 Telephone 1.0
May 5, 2025 Don Davies is named interim leader of the New Democratic Party.
Nanos Research May 2, 2025 [11] 41.8 39.2 5.8 7.9 3.2 1.3 0.8 ±2.7 pp 1,297 Telephone 2.6
April 30, 2025 Jonathan Pedneault resigns as co-leader of the Green Party.
April 29, 2025 Jagmeet Singh announces his intention to resign as leader of the New Democratic Party.
2025 election April 28, 2025 [12] 43.8 41.3 6.3 6.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 — 19,597,674 — 2.5

Regional polls

[edit]

A number of polling firms survey federal voting intentions on a regional or provincial level. Note that this section displays results from stand-alone polls, not subsets of national polls.

Central Canada

[edit]

Ontario

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c] 		Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
Leger May 25, 2025 [13] 54 37 5 3 — 1 ± 3.1 pp 908 Online 17

Western Canada

[edit]

Alberta

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[c] 		Sample
size[d] 		Polling method[e] Lead
Leger May 25, 2025 [14] 35 54 5 3 — 4 ± 3.0 pp 924 Online 19

Leadership polls

[edit]

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on which political party leader would make the best prime minister:

May 9, 2025 – present

[edit]
Polling firm Last date of polling Link Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet Don Davies Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure/none Margin of error[c] Lead
Nanos Research June 6, 2025 [1] 50.6 26.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 1.8 12.6 ±3.0 pp 24.5
Nanos Research May 30, 2025 [5] 47.4 28.4 3.8 3.1 2.4 1.9 13 ±3.0 pp 19
Nanos Research May 23, 2025 [6] 45.8 34.1 3.9 2.2 2.5 1.7 9.8 ±3.0 pp 11.7
Innovative Research May 22, 2025 [7] 43 30 3 4 2 2 18 — 13
Nanos Research May 16, 2025 [9] 46.9 37.4 3.2 2.7 2.3 1.2 4.9 ±2.9 pp 9.5
Nanos Research May 9, 2025 [10] 46.9 39.3 3.1 2.8 1.8 1.1 4.9 ±2.8 pp 7.6

May 2, 2025

[edit]
Polling firm Last date of polling Link Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure/none Margin of error[c] Lead
Nanos Research May 2, 2025 [11] 46.9 40.7 3.2 3.3 1.9 1.1 8.5 ±2.7 pp 6.2

Government approval polls

[edit]
Polling firm Last date of polling[a] Link Approve Disapprove Unsure/neither Margin of error[c] Sample size[d] Polling method[e] Net approval
Abacus Data June 5, 2025 [2] 53% 23% — ±1.9 pp 2,585 Online +30%
Spark Insights May 30, 2025 [4] 64% 36% — — 3,450 Online +28%
Innovative Research May 22, 2025 [7] 49% 43% 8% — 1,500 Online +6%
Abacus Data May 21, 2025 [8] 50% 24% — ±2.1 pp 2,273 Online +26%

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest 37 (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
  2. ^ Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
  3. ^ a b c d e f In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. ^ a b c d Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. ^ a b c d "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending June 6, 2025 (released June 10, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. June 10, 2025. Retrieved June 10, 2025.
  2. ^ a b "Abacus Data Poll: Optimism about the Direction of the Country Reaches Three Year High". Abacus Data. June 8, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  3. ^ "Federal Polling: LPC: 44% (-) CPC: 32% (-9) NDP: 12% (+7) BQ: 5% (-1) GPC: 3% (+2) PPC: 3% (+2)". X (Polling Canada). June 7, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  4. ^ a b "US style polarization in Canada? Maybe not". sparkadvocacy.ca. June 3, 2025. Retrieved June 5, 2025.
  5. ^ a b "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 30, 2025 (released June 3, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. June 3, 2025. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
  6. ^ a b "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 23, 2025 (released May 27, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 27, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  7. ^ a b c "Canada This Month Federal Leadership First Impressions" (PDF). Innovative Research. May 27, 2025. Retrieved May 28, 2025.
  8. ^ a b "Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied as Carney government approval reaches multi-year high". Abacus Data. May 25, 2025. Retrieved May 25, 2025.
  9. ^ a b "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 16, 2025 (released May 20, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 20, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  10. ^ a b "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 9, 2025 (released May 13, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 13, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  11. ^ a b "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 2, 2025 (released May 8, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 8, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  12. ^ Canada, Elections. "Election Night Results - National". enr.elections.ca.
  13. ^ "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. May 29, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
  14. ^ "Government of Alberta Report Card: June 2025" (PDF). Leger. June 12, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_46th_Canadian_federal_election&oldid=1295454383"