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2025 Tasmanian state election

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Not to be confused with 2025 Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election.
2025 Tasmanian state election
← 2024 19 July 2025 Next →
All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jeremy-Rockliff b.jpg
Dean Winter Jobs plan for stadium (cropped).jpg
Rosalie Woodruff in 2020.jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Dean Winter Rosalie Woodruff
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 8 April 2022 10 April 2024 13 July 2023
Leader's seat Braddon Franklin Franklin
Last election 14 seats, 36.7% 10 seats, 29.0% 5 seats, 13.9%
Current seats 14 10 5
Seats needed Increase 4 Increase 8 Increase 13
Incumbent Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal



The 2025 Tasmanian state election will be held on 19 July 2025 to elect all 35 members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly.[1]

The Liberal government, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Labor opposition, led by Dean Winter. The Greens, as well as independent politicians will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).

Background

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Previous election

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Main article: 2024 Tasmanian state election

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.[2][3] Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in 2026.[4]

The Liberal Party won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the previous election, and formed a minority government with the support of three Jacqui Lambie Network members and two independents, namely Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne.[5] Labor remained in opposition with 10 members and the Greens won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member Michelle O'Byrne was elected unopposed to the position of Speaker of the Assembly.[6][7]

Minority government arrangements and changes in parliament

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On 24 August 2024, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) party leader Jacqui Lambie announced the party had expelled MPs Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity.[8] Both MPs subsequently became independents in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government.[9] This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024.[10]

Following the expulsion of Pentland and Beswick, Lambie announced she would not run candidates in Tasmanian state elections in the future. She also apologised to Rockliff for government instability after her party 'imploded'.[11]

In September 2024, Andrew Jenner, the sole remaining JLN member, confirmed he was no longer party to the original confidence and supply agreement signed by the three original JLN members and the government, and that he would not sign up to a new confidence and supply arrangement.[12] In an interview with WIN News, Jenner clarified he had provided the Premier with only a "verbal agreement" for confidence and supply.[13]

Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2024 election

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Seat Before Change After
Member Party Type Date Date Member Party
Braddon Miriam Beswick Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion 24 August 2024 Miriam Beswick Independent
Bass Rebekah Pentland Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion 24 August 2024 Rebekah Pentland Independent
Lyons Rebecca White Labor Resignation 12 February 2025 4 March 2025 Casey Farrell Labor

No-confidence motion and snap election

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On 4 June 2025, opposition leader and Labor leader Dean Winter tabled a motion of no confidence to parliament.[14] Winter moved the motion one week after the government released the state budget, which forecast four deficits and debt reaching $10.8 billion in the 2028–29 financial year, and labelled it "the worst budget in the state's history".[15] Other issues pertinent to debate on the motion in the parliament included turmoil and delays regarding replacement ferries for the Spirit of Tasmania, and the proposed Macquarie Point Stadium in Hobart.[16] The motion specifically sought no confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff, as opposed to the government, though Rockliff stated he would request a snap election if the motion was passed.[17]

On 5 June 2025, the no-confidence motion passed 18–17, attracting the support of all 10 Labor MPs (including the Speaker Michelle O'Byrne who provided the casting vote in favour of the motion), 5 Greens MPs, 2 independents (Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland) and Andrew Jenner of the Jacqui Lambie Network. Until the motion, Johnston had provided confidence and supply to the government, whilst Jenner had previously characterised himself as having given a "verbal agreement" to the government.[13] Among the negative votes were all 14 Liberal MPs and 3 independents (Miriam Beswick, Rebekah Pentland and former Labor leader turned independent David O'Byrne).[18]

Following the motion's passage, Rockliff visited Lieutenant-Governor Christopher Shanahan to request a special recall of parliament for the following Tuesday, at which parliament considered and passed emergency supply extension bills, to ensure government employees continued to be paid beyond 30 June 2025, when the previous year's budget expires.[19][20] Shortly after the passage of the supply bills, Rockliff visited Governor Barbara Baker to ask for an election to be called.[21] Following this meeting the Governor released a statement noting she was "taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options", which could include requesting another Liberal MP try and form a minority government or ask Labor to form one.[21][22] The next day the Governor met with Labor leader Dean Winter, where Winter reaffirmed his party would not form a government with support from the Greens.[23] Later that evening the Governor released a statement granting Rockliff's request for a snap election to be held on Saturday 19 July, finding "there is no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed".[1]

Parties

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Main article: List of political parties in Australia § Tasmania

Parties who are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) are eligible to contest the election.[24] The list of parties registered, as of 28 January 2025, are:

Retiring MPs

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Labor

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Opinion polling

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Voting intention

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Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Political parties
LIB ALP GRN JLN OTH
13–17 May 2025 EMRS[26][27][28][29] 29% 31% 14% 6% 17%
11–18 Feb 2025 EMRS[30][31] 1,000 ±3.1% 34% 30% 13% 8% 12%
5–14 Nov 2024 EMRS[32] 1,000 ±3.1% 35% 31% 14% 6% 14%
2–11 Oct 2024 EMRS[33] 500 28% 26% 17% 5% 1%[a]
29 Aug 2024 Lambie Network announces it won't run candidates in next state election
14–21 Aug 2024 EMRS[32] 36% 27% 14% 8% 15%
6–29 Aug 2024 Wolf & Smith[34][35] 786 ±3.5% 32% 23% 14% 11% 20%
16–23 May 2024 EMRS[36] 1,000 35% 28% 15% 7% 15%
21 May 2024 2024 election 36.7% 29.0% 13.9% 6.7% 13.8%

Preferred Premier

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Date Firm Party leaders
Rockliff Winter Unsure
13–17 May 2025 EMRS[28] 44% 32% 23%
11–18 February 2025 EMRS[30] 44% 34% 21%
5–14 November 2024 EMRS[32] 43% 37% 19%
14–21 August 2024 EMRS[32] 45% 30% 25%
16–23 May 2021 EMRS[32] 40% 32% 26%


Notes

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  1. ^ 8% unsure/prefer not to say

References

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  1. ^ a b "Tasmanian state election called for Saturday July 19 after Jeremy Rockliff declines to step aside". ABC News. 11 June 2025.
  2. ^ "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  3. ^ Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  4. ^ Voting Systems Tasmanian Electoral Commission
  5. ^ Adam Holmes (24 April 2024). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government". ABC News.
  6. ^ "Tasmanian Parliament elects Michelle O'Byrne as new speaker in uncontested vote". Pulse Tasmania. 14 May 2024.
  7. ^ Labor's Michelle O'Byrne officially new House of Assembly speaker The Mercury 14 May 2024
  8. ^ "Two Tasmanian MPs booted from Jacqui Lambie Network for 'failing to uphold values'". Pulse Tasmania. 24 August 2024.
  9. ^ "Ousted Jacqui Lambie Network MPs commit to supporting Tasmanian Government". Pulse Tasmania. 25 August 2024.
  10. ^ "Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland sign new deal with Premier Jeremy Rockliff". Pulse Tasmania. 27 August 2024.
  11. ^ "Lambie apologises to premier for instability, says she won't run any more Tasmanian state candidates". ABC News. 29 August 2024. Retrieved 23 September 2024.
  12. ^ "No new deal, Lyons Lambie tells premier". New Norfolk and Derwent Valley News. 16 September 2024.
  13. ^ a b "The sole remaining member of the Jacqui Lambie Network has made a decision on whether or not to enter into a new confidence and supply arrangement with the state government. #WINNews". WIN News. Facebook. 16 September 2024.
  14. ^ Adam Langenberg (4 June 2025). "Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff survives with Labor no-confidence motion to enter second day". ABC News.
  15. ^ Adam Langenberg (3 June 2025). "Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter tables no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff". ABC News.
  16. ^ Summer Liu (5 June 2025). "No deal with Greens, Winter promises". NewsWire.
  17. ^ "Embattled Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff confirms he will call a state election if no-confidence motion succeeds". 9news.com.au. 5 June 2025.
  18. ^ "As it happened: No-confidence motion against Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff succeeds on speaker's tiebreak vote". ABC News. 5 June 2025.
  19. ^ "Decision on Tasmania's state election delayed as governor seeks 'all available options'". ABC News. 10 June 2025.
  20. ^ "$2 million counting error discovered in emergency budget bill". Pulse Tasmania. 10 June 2025.
  21. ^ a b Adam Holmes (10 June 2025). "Tasmanians left in limbo until week's end as governor considers election request". ABC News.
  22. ^ "'Most serious thing': Labor leader Dean Winter defends no-confidence motion, rules out Greens deal". Pulse Tasmania. 5 June 2025.
  23. ^ "Labor leader Dean Winter meets governor, rules out Greens coalition deal". Pulse Tasmania. 11 June 2025.
  24. ^ "TEC Party Register". www.tec.tas.gov.au. Archived from the original on 4 March 2025. Retrieved 11 June 2025.
  25. ^ MacDonald, Lucy; Barraclough, Ashley (10 June 2025). "Tasmanian speaker and long-time Labor MP Michelle O'Byrne set to retire from parliament". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 10 June 2025.
  26. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 20 May 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  27. ^ "Liberal vote falls to lowest since 2009 amid Stadium debate" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 20 May 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  28. ^ a b Abey, Duncan (20 May 2025). "Tasmanian poll shock: Labor takes lead as Liberal support drops below 30 per cent". The Mercury. Archived from the original on 20 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  29. ^ Bowe, William (20 May 2025). "Tasmania: EMRS poll and Legislative Council elections". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 25 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  30. ^ a b "PARTIES TREAD WATER" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 21 February 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 April 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  31. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. 21 February 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 April 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  32. ^ a b c d e "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing and Research Services. November 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  33. ^ "EMRS poll: State budget labelled 'irresponsible' and 'poor' by Tasmanians". Pulse Tasmania. 15 October 2024. Archived from the original on 16 May 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  34. ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). Wolf & Smith. August 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  35. ^ Bowe, William (8 September 2024). "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 19 March 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  36. ^ "Winter Tanks in First EMRS Poll". Tasmanian Times. 29 May 2024. Archived from the original on 25 March 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
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