Jump to content

Polling in Scotland for Next United Kingdom General Election

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Politics and polling in Scotland often have a different dynamic to the rest of the UK,[1] and polling companies undertake separate polling in Scotland: results of such polls are displayed in this article. The polling companies listed are all members of the British Polling Council (BPC)[2] at the time of polling and abide by its disclosure rules.[3] The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next UK general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.[4]

Graphical Summary

[edit]

Polls

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab SNP Con LD Ref Grn Alba Others Lead
12–18 Jun 2025 Ipsos[5] STV 1,066 22% 31% 10% 9% 16% 10% 1% 1% 9
27–30 May 2025 Norstat[6] The Sunday Times 1,007 20% 31% 12% 8% 21% 7% 1% 1% 10
2–5 May 2025 Survation[7] True North 1,020 19% 32% 11% 11% 21% 5% 11
16–22 Apr 2025 Survation[8] Diffley Partnership 1,005 24% 33% 14% 9% 15% 5% 9
15–20 Jan 2025 Find Out Now[9] Sunday Herald 1,334 18% 32% 12% 9% 17% 6% 5% 14
11–14 Jan 2025 Norstat[10] The Sunday Times 1,334 18% 32% 13% 11% 17% 6% 2% 14
7–13 Jan 2025 Survation[11] Holyrood Sources 1,024 24% 33% 14% 9% 15% 4% 1% 9
17–24 Dec 2024 Find Out Now[12] The National 1,774 20% 34% 13% 9% 15% 6% 2% 14
4–6 Dec 2024 Norstat[13] The Sunday Times 1,013 20% 31% 14% 9% 15% 6% 3% 1% 11
1–15 Nov 2024 Survation[14] Progress Scotland 3,016 28% 31% 15% 6% 13% 5% 2% 1% 3
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 Norstat[15] The Sunday Times 1,013 23% 30% 15% 10% 14% 6% 1% 1% 7
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation[16] Progress Scotland 2,059 31% 31% 14% 9% 11% 3% 1% Tie
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium[17] The Sunday Times 1,028 25% 32% 14% 8% 11% 7% 2% 7
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat[18] The Sunday Times 1,011 32% 29% 12% 8% 12% 5% 2% 1% 3
4 Jul 2024 2024 General Election Result – 35.3% 30.0% 12.7% 9.7% 7.0% 3.8% 0.5% 1.6% 5.3

UK polls with Scottish Subset

[edit]

This section captures data from UK wide polls that have a Scottish sub set, these produce very small sample sizes and should be viewed with caution as the statistical margin of error will be in the region of +-10%.[19] The statistical margin of error for full poll with sample of 1000 is typically +-3%. Additional uncertainty arises from the fact that sub-samples may not be correctly weighted to account for demographic variations (age, gender, previous voting intention etc.).

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab SNP Con LD Ref Grn Others Lead
2 Jul 2025 Find Out Now[20] 128 19% 29% 7% 12% 21% 7% 4% 8
29–30 Jun 2025 YouGov[21] The Times/Sky News 208 22% 32% 12% 8% 13% 9% 2% 10
27–30 Jun 2025 More in Common[22] 165 17% 30% 12% 8% 20% 7% 6% 10
25–27 Jun 2025 Opinium[23] The Observer 128 20% 28% 15% 7% 21% 6% 2% 7
25 Jun 2025 Find Out Now[24] 109 14% 37% 9% 11% 16% 8% 5% 21
22–23 Jun 2025 YouGov[25] The Times/Sky News 156 17% 39% 6% 10% 19% 6% 2% 20
20–23 Jun 2025 More in Common[26] 107 23% 28% 8% 12% 14% 10% 5% 5
18 Jun 2025 Find Out Now[27] 131 24% 34% 7% 4% 20% 10% 1% 10
15–16 Jun 2025 YouGov[28] The Times/Sky News 196 23% 41% 7% 10% 13% 5% 0% 18
13–16 Jun 2025 More in Common[29] 83 18% 37% 16% 10% 12% 6% 0% 19
11–13 Jun 2025 Opinium[30] The Observer 117 20% 31% 9% 6% 25% 4% 4% 6
11 Jun 2025 Find Out Now[31] 128 22% 32% 7% 11% 22% 4% 2% 10
10–11 Jun 2025 Survation[32] 142 21% 30% 11% 13% 20% 2% 2% 9
8–9 Jun 2025 YouGov[33] The Times/Sky News 191 17% 33% 7% 11% 28% 4% 5
6–9 Jun 2025 More in Common[34] 107 19% 33% 5% 13% 23% 6% 0% 10
4 Jun 2025 Find Out Now[35] 96 14% 31% 13% 6% 25% 8% 2% 6
1–2 Jun 2025 YouGov[36] The Times/Sky News 144 17% 38% 7% 7% 24% 3% 1% 14
30 May – 2 Jun 2025 More in Common[37] 107 24% 25% 12% 12% 18% 9% 1
30 May – 2 Jun 2025 Survation[38] 76 23% 32% 9% 7% 20% 2% 9% 9
28–30 May 2025 Opinium[39] The Observer 116 19% 33% 9% 13% 20% 4% 2% 13
28 May 2025 Find Out Now[40] 114 13% 26% 12% 9% 32% 4% 1% 6
26–27 May 2025 YouGov[41] The Times/Sky News 133 17% 23% 13% 12% 24% 7% 4% 1
23–26 May 2025 More in Common[42] 123 16% 24% 16% 10% 24% 4% 4% Tie
21 May 2025 Find Out Now[43] 108 13% 28% 6% 19% 20% 10% 4% 8
19 May 2025 YouGov[44] The Times/Sky News 146 19% 28% 8% 19% 18% 11% 0% 9
16–19 May 2025 More in Common[45] 93 16% 26% 12% 14% 23% 8% 2% 3
14–16 May 2025 Opinium[46] The Observer 113 21% 31% 12% 8% 16% 9% 3% 10
14 May 2025 Find out Now[47] 118 16% 30% 11% 11% 22% 8% 2% 8
11–12 May 2025 YouGov[48] The Times/Sky News 201 15% 36% 8% 14% 18% 6% 2% 18
10–12 May 2025 More in Common[49] 89 18% 32% 16% 10% 17% 7% 1% 14
7 May 2025 Find out Now[50] 97 9% 34% 10% 18% 21% 9% 0% 13
6 May 2025 YouGov[51] The Times/Sky News 151 15% 35% 8% 9% 26% 6% 2% 9
3–4 May 2025 More In Common[52] 113 17% 29% 11% 9% 20% 8% 7% 9
30 Apr – 2 May 2025 Opinium[53] The Observer 122 17% 35% 15% 9% 18% 5% 2% 17
30 Apr – 2 May 2025 Survation[54] 93 33% 35% 9% 14% 5% 2% 3% 2
30 Apr 2025 FindoutNow[55] 93 15% 31% 17% 11% 17% 9% 0% 14
28 Apr 2025 YouGov[56] The Times/Sky News 147 20% 35% 8% 12% 17% 8% 1% 15
23–25 Apr 2025 Opinium Archived 2025-04-26 at the Wayback Machine[57] The Observer 138 21% 32% 14% 9% 17% 6% 1% 11
23 Apr 2025 FindoutNow[58] 99 16% 33% 10% 14% 17% 5% 5% 16
21–22 Apr 2025 YouGov[59] The Times/Sky News 175 14% 32% 9% 11% 23% 8% 4% 9
17–21 Apr 2025 More in Common[60] 111 19% 27% 17% 10% 18% 5% 4% 8
16 Apr 2025 FindoutNow[61] 118 22% 33% 13% 7% 13% 7% 5% 11
13–14 Apr 2025 YouGov[62] The Times/Sky News 209 16% 40% 11% 10% 18% 5% 1% 22
11–14 Apr 2025 Focaldata[63] 80 26% 29% 25% 6% 7% 4% 3% 3
9 Apr 2025 FindoutNow[64] 136 18% 25% 14% 16% 13% 6% 5% 7
6–7 Apr 2025 YouGov[65] The Times/Sky News 209 16% 31% 17% 14% 14% 7% 1% 14
2–4 Apr 2025 FindoutNow[66] 120 19% 38% 12% 6% 11% 7% 6% 19
30–31 Mar 2025 YouGov[67] The Times/Sky News 208 17% 29% 12% 14% 20% 5% 3% 9
28–31 Mar 2025 More in Common[68] 116 19% 24% 22% 11% 17% 6% 0% 2
26–28 Mar 2025 Opinium[69] The Observer 120 14% 38% 12% 7% 21% 2% 4% 17
26–27 Mar 2025 BMG[70] iPaper 101 23% 36% 15% 9% 11% 3% 2% 13
26 Mar 2025 FindoutNow[71] 126 12% 34% 12% 9% 16% 12% 5% 18
22–24 Mar 2025 More in Common[72] 107 21% 29% 19% 9% 20% 3% 0% 8
23–24 Mar 2025 YouGov[73] The Times/Sky News 203 15% 32% 11% 11% 13% 9% 6% 17
19–21 Mar 2025 Opinium[74] The Observer 130 20% 30% 11% 13% 21% 2% 3% 9
16–17 Mar 2025 YouGov[75] The Times/Sky News 201 23% 30% 13% 11% 15% 7% 1% 7
14–17 Mar 2025 DeltaPoll[76] 171 21% 38% 19% 6% 9% 5% 1% 17
12 Mar 2025 FindoutNow[77] 140 16% 33% 13% 6% 23% 4% 3% 10
9–10 Mar 2025 YouGov The Times/Sky News 199 16% 31% 17% 12% 15% 7% 2% 14
7–10 Mar 2025 More in Common 119 28% 26% 18% 7% 16% % 1% 2
5–7 Mar 2025 Opinium The Observer 125 21% 32% 9% 7% 22% 7% 3% 10
5 Mar 2025 FindoutNow 130 22% 31% 16% 10% 15% 6% 1% 9
02–3 Mar 2025 YouGov The Times 193 21% 32% 13% 11% 16% 6% 11
28 Feb – 2 Mar 2025 More in Common 193 24% 27% 12% 15% 17% 5% 3
26 Feb 2025 FindoutNow 138 15% 31% 12% 11% 24% 7% 1% 7
23–24 Feb 2025 YouGov The Times 210 17% 39% 15% 10% 14% 4% 1% 22
21–24 Feb 2025 More in Common 108 17% 29% 18% 11% 19% 7% 10
19–21 Feb 2025 Opinium The Observer 119 17% 36% 11% 12% 16% 6% 2% 19
19 Feb 2025 FindoutNow 102 26% 30% 8% 14% 10% 8% 5% 4
16–17 Feb 2025 YouGov 212 22% 34% 8% 7% 22% 6% 12
14–18 Feb 2025 More in Common 199 22% 31% 13% 12% 18% 3% 9
11–14 Feb 2025 YouGov The Times 193 21% 32% 13% 11% 16% 6% 11
9–10 Feb 2025 YouGov 107 23% 27% 14% 10% 22% 3% 1% 3
7–10 Feb 2025 More in Common 107 17% 38% 10% 12% 19% 3% 1% 19
5–7 Feb 2025 Opinium The Observer 124 15% 36% 12% 6% 23% 5% 3% 13
5–6 Feb 2025 Find Out Now 117 18% 30% 10% 14% 18% 9% 3% 12
2–3 Feb 2025 YouGov Sky News 215 15% 34% 13% 13% 17% 5% 4% 17
28–29 Jan 2025 BMG 104 27% 35% 10% 8% 12% 5% 3% 8
25 Jan 2025 YouGov[78] 147 21% 34% 11% 13% 17% 4% 13
22–23 Jan 2025 Whitestone Insight 136 22% 32% 11% 12% 11% 9% 2% 10
20 Jan 2025 YouGov[79] 159 16% 36% 14% 13% 16% 5% 20
17–20 Jan 2025 More in Common 124 24% 26% 13% 12% 16% 4% 2
13 Jan 2025 YouGov[80] 147 23% 33% 14% 8% 18% 7% 10
6–8 Jan 2025 More in Common 124 20% 30% 18% 10% 17% 3% 8
8 Jan 2025 Find Out Now 102 18% 35% 10% 12% 15% 7% 1% 17
8–10 Jan 2025 Opinium 125 25% 28% 11% 10% 16% 5% 4% 3
30 Dec – 3 Jan 2025 Deltapoll Mail on Sunday 104 17% 32% 12% 14% 17% 8% 15

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Blog – Scottish Election Study". Scottish Election Study. October 1, 2024.
  2. ^ "The British Polling Council". British Polling Council.
  3. ^ "The British Polling Council- Rules of disclosure". British Polling Council.
  4. ^ "Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022". www.legislation.gov.uk.
  5. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 2nd Jul 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 2 Jul 2025.
  6. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 30th May 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 2 Jun 2025.
  7. ^ "Survation 5/5/2025".
  8. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 22nd April 2025". May 2025. Retrieved 1 May 2025.
  9. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 20th January 2025". Retrieved 21 March 2025.
  10. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 14th January 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 19 March 2025.
  11. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 25th January 2025". Retrieved 19 March 2025.
  12. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 20th January 2025". Retrieved 13 April 2025.
  13. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 8th Dec 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 13 April 2025.
  14. ^ "Voting intention:Data Tables 16th November 2024". Retrieved 13 April 2025.
  15. ^ "Poll over 1013 adult Scottish residents" (PDF). Norstat. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2024-11-06.
  16. ^ "Survation Scotland Politics Poll". September 2024. Archived from the original (XLSX) on 2024-09-19.
  17. ^ "Voting Intentions 14 Sep 2024". Archived from the original on 2025-03-18.
  18. ^ "Polling intention 22nd Aug 2024" (PDF). Norstat. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2024-08-29.
  19. ^ "Margin of Error - notes for journalists". 5 November 2018.
  20. ^ "Voting intention: 2nd Jul 2025". Retrieved 4 Jul 2025.
  21. ^ "Voting intention: 30th Jun 2025" (PDF). 4 Jul 2025.
  22. ^ "Voting intention: 30th Jun 2025". 30 Jun 2025.
  23. ^ "Voting intention: 27th Jun 2025". Retrieved 1 Jul 2025.
  24. ^ "Voting intention: 25th Jun 2025". Retrieved 27 Jun 2025.
  25. ^ "Voting intention: 24th Jun 2025". 25 Jun 2025.
  26. ^ "Voting intention: 23rd Jun 2025". 26 Jun 2025.
  27. ^ "Voting intention: 18th Jun 2025". Retrieved 20 Jun 2025.
  28. ^ "Voting intention: 16th JunMay 2025" (PDF). 17 Jun 2025.
  29. ^ "Voting intention: 16th Jun 2025". 17 Jun 2025.
  30. ^ "Voting intention: 13th Jun 2025". Retrieved 16 Jun 2025.
  31. ^ "Voting intention: 11th Jun 2025". Retrieved 13 Jun 2025.
  32. ^ "Voting intention: 11th Jun 2025". Retrieved 13 Jun 2025.
  33. ^ "Voting intention: 12th JunMay 2025". Retrieved 12 Jun 2025.
  34. ^ "Voting intention: 9th JunMay 2025". 10 Jun 2025.
  35. ^ "Voting intention: 4th Jun 2025". Retrieved 6 Jun 2025.
  36. ^ "Voting intention: 2nd Jun 2025". Retrieved 2 Jun 2025.
  37. ^ "Voting intention: 2nd Jun 2025".
  38. ^ "Voting intention: 2nd Jun 2025". Retrieved 3 Jun 2025.
  39. ^ "Voting intention: 30th May 2025". Retrieved 1 Jun 2025.
  40. ^ "Voting intention: 28th May 2025". Retrieved 30 May 2025.
  41. ^ "Voting intention: 27th May 2025". Retrieved 28 May 2025.
  42. ^ "Voting intention: 26th May 2025".
  43. ^ "Voting intention: 21st May 2025". Retrieved 22 May 2025.
  44. ^ "Voting intention: 19th May 2025". Retrieved 28 May 2025.
  45. ^ "Voting intention: 19th May 2025".
  46. ^ "Voting intention: 16th May 2025". Retrieved 18 May 2025.
  47. ^ "Voting intention: 14th May 2025". Retrieved 16 May 2025.
  48. ^ "Voting intention: 12th May 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 13 May 2025.
  49. ^ "Voting intention: 12th May 2025".
  50. ^ "Voting intention: 7th May 2025". Retrieved 8 May 2025.
  51. ^ "Voting intention: 6th May 2025". Retrieved 20 May 2025.
  52. ^ "Voting intention: 4th May 2025". Retrieved 6 May 2025.
  53. ^ "Voting intention: 2nd May 2025". Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  54. ^ "Voting intention: 2nd May 2025". Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  55. ^ "Voting intention: 2nd May 2025". Retrieved 3 May 2025.
  56. ^ "Voting intention: 28th Apr 2025". Retrieved 30 April 2025.
  57. ^ "Voting intention: 26th March 2025". Retrieved 27 April 2025.[permanent dead link]
  58. ^ "Voting intention: 23rd April 2025". Retrieved 24 April 2025.
  59. ^ "Voting intention: 22nd Apr 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 23 April 2025.
  60. ^ "Voting intention: 21st April 2025".
  61. ^ "Voting intention: 17th April 2025". Retrieved 17 April 2025.
  62. ^ "Voting intention: 14th Apr 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 15 April 2025.
  63. ^ "Voting intention: 14th Apr 2025". Retrieved 15 April 2025.
  64. ^ "Voting intention: 09th April 2025". Retrieved 11 April 2025.
  65. ^ "Voting intention: 7th Apr 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 8 April 2025.
  66. ^ "Voting intention: 04th April 2025". Retrieved 5 April 2025.
  67. ^ "Voting intention: 24th March 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 5 April 2025.
  68. ^ "Voting intention: 31st March 2025". Retrieved 5 April 2025.
  69. ^ "Voting intention: 26th March 2025". Retrieved 28 March 2025.
  70. ^ "Voting intention: 27th March 2025". Retrieved 31 March 2025.
  71. ^ "Voting intention: 26th March 2025". Retrieved 26 March 2025.
  72. ^ "Voting intention: 24th March 2025". Retrieved 24 March 2025.
  73. ^ "Voting intention: 24th March 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 24 March 2025.
  74. ^ "Voting intention: 21st March 2025". Retrieved 23 March 2025.
  75. ^ "Voting intention: 17th March 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 18 March 2025.
  76. ^ "Voting intention: 17th March 2025" (PDF). Retrieved 20 March 2025.
  77. ^ "Voting intention: 12th March 2025". Retrieved 14 March 2025.
  78. ^ "Voting intention: 25th Jan 2025". Retrieved 30 April 2025.
  79. ^ "Voting intention: 20th Jan 2025". Retrieved 30 April 2025.
  80. ^ "Voting intention: 13th Jan 2025". Retrieved 30 April 2025.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Polling_in_Scotland_for_Next_United_Kingdom_General_Election&oldid=1299247689"