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2025 Canadian federal election in Quebec

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2025 Canadian federal election in Quebec
← 2021 April 28, 2025 (2025-04-28) 46th →
All 78 Quebec seats in the House of Commons of Canada
Opinion polls
Registered6,664,620 [1]
Turnout4,457,743 (66.89%) Increase 4.52% [2]
  First party Second party
 
Mark Carney portrait February 2020.jpg
Yves-François Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Leader Mark Carney Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Bloc Québécois
Leader since March 9, 2025 January 17, 2019
Last election 35 seats, 33.6% 32 seats, 32.1%
Seats before 33 33
Seats won 44 22
Seat change Increase 11 Decrease 11
Popular vote 1,897,526 1,236,349
Percentage 42.6% 27.7%
Swing Increase 9.0 pp Decrease 4.4 pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Leader Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh
Party Conservative New Democratic
Leader since September 10, 2022 October 1, 2017
Last election 10 seats, 18.6% 1 seats, 9.8%
Seats before 9 1
Seats won 11 1
Seat change Increase 2 Steady
Popular vote 1,038,315 200,393
Percentage 23.3% 4.5%
Swing Increase 4.7 pp Decrease 5.3 pp
Prime Minister before election

Mark Carney
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Mark Carney
Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, there were 78 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 22.7% of all members of the House.

Background

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2022 electoral redistribution

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The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats, with Quebec's number of seats remaining steady at 78. Originally the province was set to lose 1 seat, with 77 total. But with the passage of the Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act, the province will now always be guaranteed at least 78 seats. This made the average population per constituency in Quebec 108,998 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which was 1,150 more people per electoral district than the national average.[3]

2021 results transposed onto 2023 boundaries
Party MPs
2021 actual result 2021 notional result Change
Liberal 35 33 Decrease 2
Bloc Québécois 32 34 Increase 2
Conservative 10 10 Steady 0
New Democratic 1 1 Steady 0
Total seats 78 78 0 Steady

Timeline

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See also: By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament
Changes in Quebec seats held (2021–2025)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Richmond—Arthabaska September 13, 2022 Alain Rayes █ Conservative Left caucus █ Independent
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount March 8, 2023 Marc Garneau █ Liberal Retired June 19, 2023 Anna Gainey █ Liberal
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun February 1, 2024 David Lametti █ Liberal Resigned to join law firm September 16, 2024 Louis-Philippe Sauvé █ Bloc Québécois
Honoré-Mercier September 19, 2024 Pablo Rodriguez █ Liberal Left caucus █ Independent
Honoré-Mercier January 20, 2025 Pablo Rodriguez █ Independent Resigned to run for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party Vacant until the 2025 election █ Vacant

Opinion polling

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This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election. (edit | history)
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[a] 		Sample
size[b] 		Polling method[c] Lead
Leger April 25, 2025 [4] 42 24 5 26 2 1 — 893 Online 16
Synopsis April 11, 2025 [5] 42 21 7 27 1 2 — 1,000 Online 15
Leger March 10, 2025 [6] 36 24 8 25 4 2 1 ± 3.09pp 1,007 Online 11
Leger February 2, 2025 [7] 29 24 12 29 3 3 1 ± 3.07 pp 1,017 Online 0
Leger January 19, 2025 [8] 21 26 7 37 4 2 1 ± 3.09 pp 1,003 Online 11
Leger December 2, 2024 [9] 22 22 15 35 4 1 2 ± 3.1 pp 1,002 Online 13
Leger November 11, 2024 [10] 22 24 13 35 3 3 0 ± 3.08 pp 1,010 Online 11
Leger October 6, 2024 [11] 27 22 11 35 3 1 0 ± 3.04 pp 1,041 Online 8
Leger August 25, 2024 [12] 27 23 14 29 5 3 0 ± 3.04 pp 1,041 Online 2
Leger June 3, 2024 [13] 26 26 11 31 4 1 1 ± 3.08 pp 1,015 Online 5
Leger April 21, 2024 [14] 26 24 10 35 2 2 1 ± 3.05 pp 1,026 Online 9
Pallas Data April 8, 2024 [15] 25.3 26.2 9.9 28.6 0.7 2.2 0.6 ± 2 pp 700 IVR 2.4
Leger March 18, 2024 [16] 27 23 14 30 3 2 1 ± 3.05 pp 1,033 Online 3
Leger February 6, 2024 [17] 28 24 14 29 3 2 1 ± 3.05 pp 1,032 Online 1
Leger December 4, 2023 [18] 28 25 10 31 2 2 2 ± 3.04 pp 846 Online 3
Pallas Data September 27, 2023 [19] 34 25 7 28 3 2 1 ± 2.96 pp 1,095 IVR 6
Leger September 25, 2023 [20] 29 23 13 29 2 1 — ± 3.0 pp 1,046 Online 0
Leger February 26, 2023 [21] 33 15 13 31 4 2 — ± 3.0 pp 1,044 Online 2
Leger November 6, 2022 [22] 34 18 12 30 2 2 — ± 3.1 pp 1,028 Online 4

Predictions

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Summary

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Results

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Quebec summary seat results in the 2025 Canadian federal election
Party Votes Vote % Vote +/- Seats Seat +/-
Liberal 1,897,526
42.6%
 Increase 9.0pp
44 / 78 (56%)
 Increase 11
Bloc Québécois 1,232,853
27.7%
 Decrease 4.4pp
22 / 78 (28%)
 Decrease 11
Conservative 1,038,315
23.3%
 Increase 4.7pp
11 / 78 (14%)
 Increase 2
New Democratic 200,393
4.5%
 Decrease 5.3pp
1 / 78 (1%)
 Steady
Green 40,909
0.9%
 Decrease 0.6pp Steady
People's 35,237
0.8%
 Decrease 1.9pp Steady
Independent 4,196
0.1%
 Decrease 0.1pp Decrease 1
Other 8,818
0.2%
 Decrease 0.1pp Steady
Total 4,457,743
100%
 –
78 / 78 (100%)
 Increase 1 [d]

Comparison with national results

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Results by party
Party Popular vote % Seats in caucus
QC Natl. avg. diff.
Liberal 42.6 43.8 -1.2
44 / 169 (26%)
Bloc Québécois 27.7 6.3 +21.4
22 / 22 (100%)
Conservative 23.3 41.3 -18.0
11 / 144 (8%)
New Democratic 4.5 6.3 -1.8
1 / 7 (14%)
Green 0.9 1.2 -0.3
0 / 1 (0%)
People's 0.8 0.7 +0.1 no caucus
  Total – – –
78 / 343 (23%)

Student vote results

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Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[23]

Summary of the 2025 Canadian Student Vote in Quebec
Party Leader Seats Popular vote
Elected % Δ Votes % Δ (pp)
Liberal Mark Carney 47 60.23 Increase 7 38,819 38.90 Increase 7.71
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 18 23.08 Decrease 3 20,298 20.34 Increase 1.25
Conservative Pierre Poilievre 11 14.10 Increase 2 19,738 19.78 Increase 6.68
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 2 2.56 Decrease 5 11,814 11.84 Decrease 9.47
Green Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault 0 0 Decrease 1 4,147 4.16 Decrease 2.84
People's Maxime Bernier 0 0 Steady 0 2,588 2.59 Decrease 0.41
Other 0 0 Steady 0  2,384 2.39 Decrease 2.61
Total 78 100.00 Steady 0 99,788 100.00 –
Source: Student Vote Canada[24]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  2. ^ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  3. ^ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
  4. ^ 1 seat was vacant at the dissolution of Parliament.

References

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  1. ^ "Election Night Results – National". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 30, 2025.
  2. ^ "UPDATED: The 45th Federal Election by the Numbers". Elections Canada. May 7, 2025. Retrieved May 12, 2025.
  3. ^ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  4. ^ "Élections fédérales 2025 – Sondage auprès de la population québécoise" (PDF). Leger. April 25, 2025. Retrieved April 27, 2025.
  5. ^ "The Liberal Party leads in Quebec: "15 points ahead, that's substantial"". Synopsis. April 14, 2025. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  6. ^ "Politique au Québec et au Canada Mars 2025" (PDF). Leger. March 10, 2025. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
  7. ^ St-Pierre, Guillaume (February 6, 2025). Menaces de Donald Trump: un regain de vie pour le PLC. Retrieved February 6, 2025 – via www.journaldemontreal.com.
  8. ^ "Intentions de vote et préférences politiques" (PDF). Leger. January 22, 2025. Retrieved January 26, 2025.
  9. ^ "Intentions de vote" (PDF). Leger. December 3, 2024. Retrieved December 28, 2024.
  10. ^ "Intentions de vote" (PDF). Leger. November 13, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  11. ^ "Intentions de Vote et Préférences Politiques au Fédéral" (PDF). Leger. October 6, 2024. Retrieved October 8, 2024.
  12. ^ "Intentions de Vote" (PDF). Leger. August 28, 2024. Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  13. ^ "Intentions de Vote" (PDF). Leger. June 6, 2024. Retrieved June 6, 2024.
  14. ^ "Intentions de Vote et Referendum Sur L'Immigration" (PDF). Leger. April 21, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  15. ^ "Canadians Think Liberals Would Do Better Without Trudeau, But Less Than One In Five Would Actually Change Their Vote: Pallas Poll". Pallas Data. April 18, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
  16. ^ "Intentions de vote et Préférences Politiques" (PDF). Leger. March 20, 2024. Retrieved March 20, 2024.
  17. ^ "Intentions de vote et Préférences Politiques" (PDF). Leger. February 7, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2024. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  18. ^ "Intentions de Vote, Opinion Politique et Perception de la Souveraineté" (PDF). Leger. December 4, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 7, 2023. Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  19. ^ "Intentions de vote fédéral au Québec" (PDF). Pallas Data. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 12, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  20. ^ "Le Parti libéral glisse et le Bloc Québécois dégringole au Québec face à la montée rapide du Parti conservateur". Leger. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 31, 2023. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  21. ^ "Intentions de Vote, Baromètre des Personnalités et Enjeux Actuels" (PDF). Leger. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 1, 2023. Retrieved March 1, 2023.
  22. ^ "Intentions de Vote et Chefferie de Parti Libéral du Québec" (PDF). Leger. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
  23. ^ "Student Vote". Student Vote Canada. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  24. ^ https://studentvote.ca/results/provincial_results/59/2
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