Post-election pendulum for the 2025 Australian federal election
 2025 Australian federal election |
|---|
| National results |
| State and territory results |
The Australian Labor Party won the 2025 federal election in a landslide, winning 94 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition won 43 seats.
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1] Here, 'the vote' is defined as the vote after preferences, where the distribution of preferences has continued to the point where there are only 2 candidates left.
In the Opposition Seats table, blue is used for both the Liberal party and members of the LNP who caucus with the Liberal party room, while green is used for both the National party and members of the LNP who caucus with the National party room.
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster-style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.
The pendulum works by lining up the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin by which they are held on a two-candidate preferred (2CP) basis. That is also known as the swing that is required for the seat to change hands. With a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats changing hands can be predicted.
Pendulum (2CP)
[edit]| Crossbench (13 seats) | ||||
| Marginal | ||||
| Bradfield | NSW | Nicolette Boele | IND v LIB | 0.01 |
| Kooyong | Vic | Monique Ryan | IND v LIB | 0.67 |
| Fowler | NSW | Dai Le | IND v ALP | 2.68 |
| Ryan | Qld | Elizabeth Watson-Brown | GRN v LNP | 3.27 |
| Curtin | WA | Kate Chaney | IND v LIB | 3.27 |
| Mackellar | NSW | Sophie Scamps | IND v LIB | 5.66 |
| Fairly safe | ||||
| Calare | NSW | Andrew Gee | IND v NAT | 6.78 |
| Wentworth | NSW | Allegra Spender | IND v LIB | 8.34 |
| Indi | Vic | Helen Haines | IND v LIB | 8.64 |
| Safe | ||||
| Warringah | NSW | Zali Steggall | IND v LIB | 11.20 |
| Mayo | SA | Rebekha Sharkie | CA v ALP | 14.89 |
| Kennedy | Qld | Bob Katter | KAP v LNP | 15.75 |
| Clark | Tas | Andrew Wilkie | IND v ALP | 20.38 |
Analysis
[edit]- Labor increased its majority significantly, securing 94 seats, up from 77 in 2022.
- The Coalition dropped to 43 seats, continuing its downward trend.
- The crossbench decreased slightly to 13 seats, down from 16, despite maintaining influence in key electorates.
Pendulum (2PP)
[edit]Separate to the two-candidate preferred (2CP) vote, the two-party preferred (2PP) vote is calculated in all seats. In "non-classic seats" (seats where a major party fails to reach the 2CP count of which there were 35 at this election), the 2PP figure differs to the 2CP figure (in classic seats, the 2CP and 2PP are the same). The 2PP figures in the non-classic seats allow for the calculation of the nation-wide 2PP vote.[2][3]
Seats changing 2CP classification
[edit]- Includes gains.
| Seat | Party | Swing (to winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2025 | ||
| Aston (VIC) | Liberal | Labor | +5.8 |
| Banks (NSW) | Liberal | Labor | +4.6 |
| Bass (TAS) | Liberal | Labor | +9.4 |
| Bean (ACT) | Labor | Labor | −12.7 |
| Bendigo (VIC) | Labor | Labor | −9.9 |
| Bennelong (NSW) | Liberal | Labor | +9.3 |
| Berowra (NSW) | Liberal | Liberal | −5.7 |
| Blaxland (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +8.9 |
| Bonner (QLD) | Liberal National | Labor | +8.3 |
| Boothby (SA) | Labor | Labor | +7.4 |
| Braddon (TAS) | Liberal | Labor | +15.3 |
| Bradfield (TAS) | Liberal | Independent | +3.4 |
| Brisbane (QLD) | Greens | Labor | +58.5 |
| Bruce (VIC) | Labor | Labor | +9.3 |
| Calare (NSW) | National | Independent | +56.2 |
| Capricornia (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −1.0 |
| Cook (NSW) | Liberal | Liberal | −4.0 |
| Cowan (WA) | Labor | Labor | +3.7 |
| Deakin (VIC) | Liberal | Labor | +3.0 |
| Dickson (QLD) | Liberal National | Labor | +7.2 |
| Fairfax (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −5.1 |
| Farrer (NSW) | Liberal | Liberal | −10.2 |
| Fenner (ACT) | Labor | Labor | +5.7 |
| Flinders (VIC) | Liberal | Liberal | −4.2 |
| Flynn (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | +5.9 |
| Forde (QLD) | Liberal National | Labor | +5.7 |
| Franklin (TAS) | Labor | Labor | −5.9 |
| Fraser (VIC) | Labor | Labor | −7.6 |
| Fremantle (WA) | Labor | Labor | −16.3 |
| Goldstein (VIC) | Independent | Liberal | +3.9 |
| Greenway (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +4.6 |
| Grey (SA) | Liberal | Liberal | −5.3 |
| Griffith (QLD) | Greens | Labor | +60.5 |
| Groom (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −1.1 |
| Hinkler (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −3.7 |
| Holt (VIC) | Labor | Labor | +6.9 |
| Hughes (NSW) | Liberal | Labor | +5.8 |
| Hunter (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +4.3 |
| Isaacs (VIC) | Labor | Labor | +5.1 |
| Kingston (SA) | Labor | Labor | +4.7 |
| La Trobe (VIC) | Liberal | Liberal | −5.5 |
| Leichhardt (QLD) | Liberal National | Labor | +9.5 |
| Lindsay (NSW) | Liberal | Liberal | −3.0 |
| Lingiari (NT) | Labor | Labor | +7.1 |
| Lyons (TAS) | Labor | Labor | +10.7 |
| Macarthur (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +6.0 |
| McPherson (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −4.2 |
| Melbourne (VIC) | Greens | Labor | +9.3 |
| Mitchell (NSW) | Liberal | Liberal | −5.9 |
| Moncrieff (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −1.6 |
| Moore (WA) | Liberal | Labor | +3.7 |
| Moreton (QLD) | Labor | Labor | +7.0 |
| O'Connor (WA) | Liberal | Liberal | +7.3 |
| Parramatta (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +9.0 |
| Paterson (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +4.1 |
| Petrie (QLD) | Liberal National | Labor | +5.4 |
| Rankin (QLD) | Labor | Labor | +6.2 |
| Reid (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +6.8 |
| Riverina (NSW) | National | National | +3.4 |
| Robertson (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +7.1 |
| Ryan (QLD) | Greens | Greens | +3.5 |
| Shortland (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +5.4 |
| Solomon (NT) | Labor | Labor | −7.3 |
| Sturt (SA) | Liberal | Labor | +6.7 |
| Swan (WA) | Labor | Labor | +4.9 |
| Sydney (NSW) | Labor | Labor | +4.9 |
| Tangney (WA) | Labor | Labor | +3.6 |
| Wentworth (NSW) | Liberal | Independent | +8.9 |
| Wide Bay (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −2.8 |
| Wills (VIC) | Labor | Labor | −7.6 |
| Wright (QLD) | Liberal National | Liberal National | −2.0 |
References
[edit]- ^ Division Classifications Archived 22 August 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.
- ^ "Non-classic divisions". AEC Tallyroom 2025 Federal Election. Canberra: Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 28 May 2025. Retrieved 20 June 2025.
- ^ "Two party preferred by division". AEC Tallyroom 2025 Federal Election. Canberra: Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 28 May 2025. Retrieved 20 June 2025.
| ||
| Campaign | | |
| Results | ||