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Novopavlivka offensive

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Novopavlivka offensive
Part of the eastern front of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Date28 March 2025 – present
(2 months, 1 week and 5 days)
Location
Eastern Ukraine
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Russian army reaches the Dnipropetrovsk region.[1]
Belligerents
 Russia  Ukraine
Units involved
Russian Armed Forces Ukrainian Armed Forces

A military engagement between the Russian Armed Forces and Ukrainian Armed Forces for control over the Ukrainian settlement of Novopavlivka and the nearby area began in March 2025.[2]

Background

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Main article: Velyka Novosilka offensive

Following the Russian capture of Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka in January 2025, the movement in this sector of the frontline largely stabilised.[3] The Ukrainian military stated that they halted further Russian advances due to a strategic regrouping of their army.[4][5] While the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed a temporary operational pause in Russian offensive operations throughout late January, February and early March.[6] This was confirmed by a decline of Russian assault operations in the first quarter of 2025. Which also resulted in a consecutive monthly decrease of Russian territorial gains.[7][8]

Offensive

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Towards the end of March, the Russian Armed Forces resumed offensive operations near Pokrovsk.[9] Instead of assaulting the city directly, the attacks were this time aimed westwards. Both the Ukrainian General Staff and the Institute for the Study of War started referring to this sector of the frontline as 'Novopavlivka direction'.[10][11] On 30 March, Russian troops seized Zaporizhzhia village, located seven kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk region.[12][13] At the same time, Russian forces launched an assault west of Kurakhove where they advanced to the eastern outskirts of Rozlyv.[14] The following day, the Russian Defence Ministry said its forces took full control of Rozlyv.[15] Geolocated footage published on 1 April corroborated the Russian seizure of Rozlyv.[16] Simultaneous advances occurred in early April north of Velyka Novosilka, where the Russian military resumed offensive operations along the Mokry Yaly river.[17] Russian troops claimed to have captured Vesele.[18]

Throughout the month of April, Russian forces crawled forward in the fields east of Novopavlivka seizing the settlement of Preobrazhenka.[19] The Ukrainian army noticed an increase of Russian operations in April, both in mechanized and infantry assaults.[20][21] In the south along the Mokri Yaly river, Ukrainian forces repelled further Russian advances. A local Ukrainian commander stated that the Ukrainian army managed to improve their positions in this sector by regaining control over the village of Dniproenerhiya.[22][23] At the same time, Russian troops resumed operations near Rozlyv where they advanced to the west along the Vovcha river by 18 April.[24][25]

The following week, Ukrainian forces were able to repel a Russian motorized assault from Rozlyv towards Bahatyr consisting entirely of motorcycles and civilian vehicles.[26][27] Elements of the Russian 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment were eventually able to entrench themselves into the southeastern streets of Bahatyr by early May.[28] To the east of Novopavlivka, the Russian army launched several attacks and were able to advance into the eastern part of Troitske.[29] Russia announced the capture of Troitske on 8 May.[30] Geolocated footage indicated that Russian forces took control of central Kotlyarivka by 9 May. Moreover, Russian soldiers advanced into central Bahatyr along Likarniana Street.[31] The Russian push around Kotlyarivka brings Novopavlivka within 10 kilometers (six miles) from the frontline. As a result, the Ukrainian authorities ordered the evacuation of seven villages in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region.[32]

In mid-May, continued Russian assaults took place near the Dnipropetrovsk – Donetsk border.[33] Meanwhile in Bahatyr, the Russian military said it had fully captured the village.[34][35] The ISW assessed on 18 May, based on geoconfirmed footage, that elements of the Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade raised Russian flags in Bahatyr, denoting the seizure of the village. Additional advances occurred southeast of Bohdanivka.[36] The next week, Russian forces started advancements to the west of Bahatyr capturing the village of Odradne.[37][38] Furthermore, Russian troops were able to secure the settlement of Bohdanivka.[39]

At the beginning of June, the Russian army resumed offensive operations along the Mokry Yaly river by seizing Fedorivka. The capture of Fedorivka also indicated that Russia took full control of Dniproenerhiya and Vesele.[40][41] On 8 June, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that its forces had reached the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region.[42] Ukrainian officials denied the Russian statements of their presence inside Dnipropetrovsk, calling the reports "fake".[43] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated that Russian forces “began an offensive” inside Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[44][45]

Analysis

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Strategic value

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Novopavlivka used to be located at a safe distance from the eastern frontline in the first two years of the war. That changed when the Russian army launched an offensive in 2024 towards the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, bringing the line of contact only a couple miles away of Novopavlivka.[46][47] The locality itself isn't in particular strategic, though it's location just over the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region makes it significant as Russia has not entered this oblast in the first three years of their full-scale invasion.[48] Therefore, it would mainly mark a moral blow for Ukraine, should Russia cross into the Dnipropetrovsk region and seize Novopavlivka.[49]

Tactics

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The offensive witnessed the integration of motorbikes and quadbikes into Russian offensive operations. The Russian Defence Ministry published a video showing its fighters practising the new tactic on a dirt track.[50] The ISW has observed an increased Russian usage of motorcycles in motorized assaults.[51] The formation of small tactical motorcycle squads is an attempt to evade Ukrainian drone attacks.[52] Speed and agility can be seen as advantages of this tactic, though the effort is very risky considering the rider has no protecting armor when struck.[53]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Russia claims its forces have reached Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time". France24. 8 June 2025. Retrieved 9 June 2025.
  2. ^ Kateryna Hodunova (29 April 2025). "Russia intensifies offensive operations in 3 regions, pushes toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine's military says". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  3. ^ Kateryna Denisova (27 February 2025). "Russian troops 'bogged down' near Pokrovsk, Ukrainian military claims". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  4. ^ Tetiana Lanchukovska (27 February 2025). "Ukrainian forces regroup to slow Russian advance on Novopavlivka front in Donbas". LIGA. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  5. ^ Kateryna Denisova (27 February 2025). "Russia's advance slows down in critical areas after Ukraine regrouped, Syrskyi says". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  6. ^ Evans, Angelica; Gasparyan, Davit; Gibson, Olivia; Novikov, Daria; Barros, George; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William (29 March 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  7. ^ Valentyna Romanenko (5 March 2025). "Number of Russian assaults on Pokrovsk front continues to fall – DeepState". Pravda UA. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  8. ^ Peter Dickinson (1 April 2025). "Russian advance slows in March as Putin's invasion loses momentum". Atlantic Council. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  9. ^ Kateryna Denisova (25 March 2025). "Russia ramps up attacks near Pokrovsk, Ukrainian military says". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  10. ^ Oksana Zhytniuk (14 January 2025). "Kurakhove axis no longer mentioned in General Staff reports, but fighting continues". LIGA. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  11. ^ Evans, Angelica; Gibson, Olivia; Gasparyan, Davit; Harward, Christina; Mappes, Grace; Barros, George; Runkel, William (28 March 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  12. ^ "Russia Captures Village Near Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Region – Moscow". The Moscow Times. 30 March 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  13. ^ "Russia captures village near Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region: Moscow". Al Arabiya News. 30 March 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  14. ^ Wolkov, Nicole; Novikov, Daria; Gibson, Olivia; Harward, Christina; Mappes, Grace; Harvey, Anna; Barros, George (31 March 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  15. ^ "Russian forces capture new village in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv says fighting continues". Reuters. 1 April 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  16. ^ Evans, Angelica; Novikov, Daria; Wolkov, Nicole; Gasparyan, Davit; Harvey, Anna; Hird, Karolina; Barros, George; Runkel, William; Trotter, Nate (1 April 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  17. ^ Wolkov, Nicole; Gasparyan, Davit; Gibson, Olivia; Harvey, Anna; Evans, Angelica; Kagan, Frederick W.; Runkel, William; Trotter, Nate (3 April 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  18. ^ Warren Murray (4 April 2025). "Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv solving its troop shortages, says top US general in Europe". The Guardian. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  19. ^ Mappes, Grace; Harward, Christina; Novikov, Daria; Harvey, Anna; Gibson, Olivia; Gasparyan, Davit; Barros, George; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William (17 April 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  20. ^ Carey, Andrew; Gak, Kosta (9 April 2025). "Russia steps up offensive across the front line in Ukraine, in apparent defiance of Trump. What does it mean for the war?". CNN. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  21. ^ Evans, Angelica; Wolkov, Nicole; Harward, Christina; Gibson, Olivia; Harvey, Anna; Barros, George; Trotter, Nate (14 April 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  22. ^ Tim Zadorozhnyy (15 April 2025). "Ukraine has liberated Dniproenerhiia village in Donetsk Oblast, commander claims". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  23. ^ "Ukrainian forces retake village in Donetsk Oblast, push back Russian attack near Vuhledar". The New Voice UA. 15 April 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  24. ^ Evans, Angelica; Gasparyan, Davit; Novikov, Daria; Gibson, Olivia; Mappes, Grace; Harvey, Anna; Hird, Karolina; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William (18 April 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  25. ^ "Russian forces advance near Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil in Donetsk Oblast". The New Voice UA. 18 April 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  26. ^ Novikov, Daria; Wolkov, Nicole; Gibson, Olivia; Gasparyan, Davit; Barros, George; Runkel, William (26 April 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  27. ^ Olha Hlushchenko (27 April 2025). "Ukrainian defenders repel Russian assault in Donetsk Oblast: equipment destroyed, around 40 troops killed". Pravda UA. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  28. ^ Gibson, Olivia; Novikov, Daria; Harvey, Anna; Harward, Christina; Evans, Angelica; Barros, George; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William (3 May 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  29. ^ Gibson, Olivia; Mappes, Grace; Harward, Christina; Novikov, Daria; Harvey, Anna; Hird, Karolina; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William (7 May 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  30. ^ "Russia says Ukraine attempted border incursions after ceasefire started". Reuters. 8 May 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  31. ^ Evans, Angelica; Wolkov, Nicole; Harward, Christina; Mappes, Grace; Gibson, Olivia; Novikov, Daria; Kagan, Frederick W.; Runkel, William; Trotter, Nate (9 May 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  32. ^ "Ukraine Orders Evacuation From 7 Villages in the East". The Moscow Times. 29 April 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  33. ^ Tim Zadorozhnyy (13 May 2025). "Russia intensifies assaults near Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, Ukraine's military says". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 20 May 2025.
  34. ^ "Ukraine says Russia launched 'record' drone barrage". France24. 18 May 2025. Retrieved 20 May 2025.
  35. ^ Warren Murray (19 May 2025). "Ukraine war briefing: More Russian drones than ever attack before Trump-Putin call". The Guardian. Retrieved 20 May 2025.
  36. ^ Harvey, Anna; Gibson, Olivia; Harward, Christina; Kagan, Frederick W.; Trotter, Nate (17 May 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 20 May 2025.
  37. ^ "Russia says it captures 3 more settlements in east Ukraine". Reuters. 25 May 2025. Retrieved 26 May 2025.
  38. ^ Evans, Angelica; Wolkov, Nicole; Gibson, Olivia; Mappes, Grace; Kagan, Frederick W.; Trotter, Nate (23 May 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 26 May 2025.
  39. ^ Novikov, Daria; Evans, Angelica; Gibson, Olivia; Harvey, Anna; Kagan, Frederick W.; Trotter, Nate (24 May 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 24, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 26 May 2025.
  40. ^ "Russia says its strike against Kyiv and other centres was a response to Ukrainian 'terrorist acts'". Reuters. 6 June 2025. Retrieved 9 June 2025.
  41. ^ Novikov, Daria; Evans, Angelica; Gibson, Olivia; Mappes, Grace; Olmsted, Jennie; Sobieski, Jessica; Barros, George; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William (6 June 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 9 June 2025.
  42. ^ Chursina, Kateryna; Kudrytski, Aliaksandr (8 June 2025). "Russia says its forces reach Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region". Bloomberg. Retrieved 9 June 2025.
  43. ^ Sasha Vakulina (8 June 2025). "Kyiv denies Russian forces' presence in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region". EuroNews. Retrieved 9 June 2025.
  44. ^ Harward, Christina; Harvey, Anna; Novikov, Daria; Olmsted, Jennie; Barros, George; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William (8 June 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 9 June 2025.
  45. ^ "Russia Says Pushing Offensive Into Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Region". The Moscow Times. 8 June 2025. Retrieved 9 June 2025.
  46. ^ "'A bad dream': Russian troops threaten Dnipropetrovsk". France24. 27 January 2025. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  47. ^ Hnidyi, Vitalii; Ogirenko, Valentyn (19 February 2025). "Ukrainian villagers watch peace talks uneasily as front line nears". Reuters. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  48. ^ Carey, Andrew; Gak, Kosta (9 April 2025). "Russia steps up offensive across the front line in Ukraine in apparent defiance of Trump. What does it mean for the war?". CNN. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  49. ^ Méheut, Constant; Konovalova, Olha (21 February 2025). "Russia talks peace while troops threaten new region in Ukraine". The New York Times. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  50. ^ Tarasova Markina, Daria; Lister, Tim (27 April 2025). "Russian military turns to motorbikes to evade Ukrainian drones on frontlines". CNN. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  51. ^ Novikov, Daria; Wolkov, Nicole; Gibson, Olivia; Gasparyan, Davit; Barros, George; Runkel, William (26 April 2025). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  52. ^ Jörg Luyken (27 April 2025). "Russia forming motorbike columns to escape Ukraine's drones". The Telegraph. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
  53. ^ David Axe (5 May 2025). "Sometimes Russia's Motorcycle Assaults Actually Work—And Russian Regiments Advance A Short Distance". Forbes. Retrieved 17 May 2025.
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