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Fat pope, thin pope

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Pius XII and John XXIII, sequential popes who differed both in build and theological emphases

"Fat pope, thin pope" (Italian: papa grasso, papa magro) is an adage in the Catholic Church describing not only a perceived physical trend but also that conclaves tend to counterbalance the preceding pope with one having different theological emphases. The accuracy of the adage has been debated, with both supporters and sceptics. It has also been used in non-papal contexts to refer to other perceived pendulum swings.

Phrase

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The adage around papal conclaves has been attributed to Italians and has multiple phrasing, including "Always follow a fat pope with a skinny one" (Italian: Fate sempre seguire un papa grasso a uno magro),[1] "A fat pope follows a thin one" (Italian: A un papa grasso, ne segue uno magro),[2][3] "A thin pope follows a fat pope" (Italian: A un papa magro, ne segue uno grasso),[4] and "After a fat pope comes a thin pope" (Italian: Dopo un papa grasso, viene uno magro).[5] It describes a perceived tendency for the cardinal electors to choose a candidate who counterbalances the previous pope, as if following a pendulum swing.[1]

In choosing a successor, cardinals are seen to focus on the perceived flaws of the previous pontiff, and select a candidate who remedies those flaws.[5] A "combative" pope may be followed by a more amicable one, and a "politician" followed by a "priest".[6][7] In the words of Miles Pattenden, a historian of the Catholic Church at Oxford University, the idea of the saying is that "the cardinals very often focus on what they didn't like about the previous Pope, all the things they thought were his faults and flaws, and they look for someone who remedies those."[5] This phenomenon is especially said to be noticed in history after particularly long papacies, when the church is ready for change.[8][9]

Accuracy

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Pius IX's reign, marked by a "distrust of modernity", was followed by Leo XIII's focus on a more "activist faith", which was in turn followed by Pius X's fight against modernism.[10] The "austere" and "aristocratic" Pius XII was followed by the "gregarious and seemingly unsophisticated" John XXIII.[9] Similarly, the "progressive" Francis was seen as more left-wing following the "traditionalist and "introverted" Benedict XVI, who in turn was seen as more right-wing than the preceding "charismatic" John Paul II.[2][11] Some saw the election of Leo XIV as further confirming the adage, while others argued that Leo was in continuity with Francis.[12][13][14]

While the phrase is metaphorical, it has been literally true at times;[15] the portly Pius IX was followed by the skinny Leo XIII, and the "jolly and jowly" John XXIII was preceded by the "gaunt" Pius XII and followed by the "thin" Paul VI.[10] Some commentators observed that the adage is not true at all times or disputed the accuracy of the adage in theological terms.[3][4][13] For instance, one argument is that Pius XI in fact continued the policies of Benedict XV, and similarly with Paul VI and John XXIII.[16] Benedict XVI's papacy was also seen by some to be more of the same rather than a change;[17] allegedly, left-wing bishops had assumed that John Paul II's successor would follow a pendulum swing to be more liberal, and were surprised by Benedict XVI's election.[18] Both Father James J. Martin and Colm Flynn of the Catholic television network EWTN dismissed the adage, with Flynn observing that there was not much difference between Benedict XVI and Francis.[11]

Other contexts

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Some use the phrase solely in a literal way. According to a Roman legend, a fat pope with the letter R in his surname would be followed by a thin pope with no R but at least one letter I in his last name, and who is in turn to be followed by a fat man with the letter R;[15][19] this was said to be true from Pius IX to Paul VI.[15] The phrase has also been used to describe the same pendulum phenomenon occurring among Harvard University presidents, with the scientists Charles William Eliot and James B. Conant flanking the humanist A. Lawrence Lowell,[20] and in American presidential executive styles.[21]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Allen, John L. Jr. (1 June 2001). "Pope Hopefuls". Washington Monthly. Vol. 34, no. 6. pp. 9–12. ISSN 0043-0633. Retrieved 13 May 2025.
  2. ^ a b White, Stephen (29 March 2018). "The Pope's Mes". Washington Examiner. ISSN 2688-4291. Retrieved 24 April 2025. As inadequate as the political terms 'liberal' and 'conservative' are to this purpose, they can work as shorthand: If Francis's immediate predecessors were more or less conservative, the newly elected pope appeared to be more or less a liberal, but well within the bounds of Catholic orthodoxy. ... From the beginning, it was clear that his style was earthier, less formal, than that of his predecessors, especially the professorial Pope Benedict. That's part of Francis's charm. If the Argentine pope's politics have more of a Peronist flavor, it's also true that he is hardly the first bishop of Rome to warn against consumerism and the exploitation of creation or to remind the affluent of their obligations to the poor, the sick, the migrants. As Douthat points out, such remarks mostly seemed to threaten 'a particularly American marriage of conservative Catholicism and free market ideology, which given the state of conservative politics in America perhaps deserved a period of papal challenge and self-critique.' A pope with a moderately leftist view of the world might not be such a bad thing after 35 years of relative conservatism. As the Italians say, 'A fat pope follows a thin one.'
  3. ^ a b Bentz, Jan (1 November 2020). "Who Will the Next Pope Be?". Inside The Vatican. ISSN 1068-8579. Retrieved 12 May 2025.
  4. ^ a b Clemmer, Don (11 March 2025). "The 12 cardinals who might succeed Pope Francis". U.S. Catholic. ISSN 1124-0172. Archived from the original on 22 April 2025. Retrieved 21 April 2025. Additionally, the rationale behind any candidate presumes that the cardinal electors have decided to follow a certain 'model' or 'program' in the wake of the previous pope. While they try to avoid anyone too similar to the previous pontiff ('A thin pope follows a fat pope,' say the Italians), we still have history showing that a strict 'pendulum theory' is not in play. For instance, 1939, 1963, and 2005 each saw the election of a pope who continued the legacy of his predecessor (Pius XI to Pius XII, John XXIII to Paul VI, and John Paul II to Benedict XVI, respectively.) Theoretically, this could mean that Francis—who was the 'new direction' candidate in 2013—could have a successor who will continue his approach, while also integrating it into the life of the church as the new 'business as usual.'
  5. ^ a b c Jeyaretnam, Miranda (23 April 2025). "Did Pope Francis 'Pack' the Conclave?". Time. ISSN 0040-781X. Retrieved 23 April 2025.
  6. ^ Paris, Edmond (1961). The Vatican Against Europe (in French and English). Translated by Robson, A. London: P. R. MacMillan Limited. p. 307 – via Internet Archive.
  7. ^ Greeley, Andrew M. (1979). The Making of the Popes 1978: The Politics of Intrigue in the Vatican. Kansas City: Andrews and McMeel. p. 57. ISBN 978-0-8362-3100-7. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Internet Archive.
  8. ^ Williams, Daniel; Cooperman, Alan (10 April 2005). "Top cardinal silences Vatican as selection process ramps up". The Ottawa Citizen. pp. A1, A8. ISSN 0839-3222. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Newspapers.com.
  9. ^ a b Rooney, Francis (2013). The Global Vatican: An Inside Look at the Catholic Church, World Politics, and the Extraordinary Relationship between the United States and the Holy See. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield. p. 117. ISBN 978-1442223615. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Internet Archive.
  10. ^ a b Bellitto, Christopher M. (2008). 101 Questions & Answers on Popes and the Papacy. Paulist Press. pp. 119–120. ISBN 978-0-8091-4516-4. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Internet Archive.
  11. ^ a b Pepper, Diarmuid (7 May 2025). "'Not conservative or liberal, but holy': What are Vatican insiders looking for from the next pope?". TheJournal.ie. ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 13 May 2025. There's a saying in Rome – A fat pope follows a thin one. It's not to be taken literally, but rather describes a perceived trend that conclaves tend to counterbalance the preceding pope by electing a new one with a different ideology. For example, after the charismatic John Paul II, came the introverted Benedict XVI – and after the traditionalist Benedict came the progressive Francis. Fr Martin is dismissive of the old adage. 'I don't know if they're looking for conservative, liberal, progressive, traditional, fat or thin. I think they're just looking for someone who's holy, who can proclaim the gospel and who's a good administrator, and those three things are tough to find in one person.' Flynn is equally suspicious of the idea. 'While Francis could be seen as the reformer, and he did change the tone of the papacy, when you dig into what he actually wrote and believed in, there's not much of a difference between him and Benedict.'
  12. ^ Munster, Ben; Roberts, Hannah (8 May 2025). "Pope Leo XIV seen as bridge builder after Francis' turbulent reign". Politico. ISSN 2381-1595. Retrieved 11 May 2025.
  13. ^ a b Stuart, Riley (8 May 2025). "Pope Leo XIV has already told us a lot about himself, and his agenda in 10 minutes". ABC News. Retrieved 11 May 2025. There's a saying in the Vatican that roughly translates to: a fat pope comes after a thin one. It's supposed to reflect the fact cardinals have throughout history often chosen to elect a candidate to lead the Catholic Church with a different outlook to their predecessor. On Thursday, however, that didn't happen. Robert Prevost entered this week's conclave as a cardinal and emerged Pope Leo XIV. He was a close confidant of the previous pontiff, Pope Francis, and we learnt a lot about what he might be planning to do when he spoke for roughly 10 minutes from the balcony overlooking St Peter's Square after his election.
  14. ^ McRedmond, Finn (8 May 2025). "Pope Leo XIV's centrist papacy". New Statesman. ISSN 1364-7431. Retrieved 13 May 2025.
  15. ^ a b c Jenkins, Roy (21 July 1963). "Inside the Conclave". The Observer. pp. 17, 18. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Newspapers.com. And he continued the 120-year-old alternating series, by which fat Popes with 'r's' in their names are succeeded by thin one's without 'r's': Ferretti, Pecci, Sarto, della Chiesa, Ratti, Pacelli, Roncalli, Montini.
  16. ^ Allen Jr., John L. (19 August 2022). "Why alleged conclave wisdom often isn't really all that wise". Crux. Retrieved 24 April 2025.
  17. ^ Tomkins, Stephen (2005). A Short History of Christianity (Stephen Tomkins). Oxford: Lion Hudson. p. 246. ISBN 0745951449. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Internet Archive.
  18. ^ Rose, Michael S. (2005). Benedict XVI: The Man Who Was Ratzinger. Dallas: Spence Publishing Company. p. 6. ISBN 978-1-890626-63-1. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Internet Archive.
  19. ^ Mendels, Pamela (20 August 1978). "Clues add spice to guessing game". The Record. p. 17. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Newspapers.com. According to a Roman legend, a fat pope with the letter 'R' in his surname is to be followed by a thin pope with no 'R' but at least one I in his last name, who is to be followed by a fat man with the letter 'R' in his name and so on.
  20. ^ Norton Smith, Richard (1986). The Harvard Century: The Making of a University to a Nation. New York: Simon and Schuster. p. 187. ISBN 978-0-671-46035-8. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Internet Archive.
  21. ^ Gould, Lewis L. (2009). The Modern American Presidency. University Press of Kansas. p. x. ISBN 978-0-7006-1683-1. Retrieved 24 April 2025 – via Google Books.
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