2011 Canadian federal election in Quebec

2011 Canadian federal election in Quebec

May 2, 2011 (2011-05-02)
All 75 Quebec seats in the House of Commons of Canada
Opinion polls
Registered	6,130,307
Turnout	3,801,690 (62%)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Jack Layton Michael Ignatieff Stephen Harper Party New Democratic Liberal Conservative Leader since January 25, 2003 May 2, 2009 March 20, 2004 Last election 1 seats, 12.2% 14 seats, 23.8% 10 seats, 21.7% Seats before 1 14 11 Seats won 59 7 5 Seat change 58 7 6 Popular vote 1,630,865 538 447 627 961 Percentage 42.9% 14.2% 16.5% Swing  30.7 pp  9.6 pp  5.2 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May Party Bloc Québécois Green Leader since March 15, 1997 August 27, 2006 Last election 49 seats, 38.1% 0 seat, 3.5% Seats before 47 0 Seats won 4 0 Seat change 43 0 Popular vote 891,425 80 402 Percentage 23.4% 2.1% Swing  14.7 pp 1.4 pp
Prime Minister before election Stephen Harper Conservative Prime Minister after election Stephen Harper Conservative

In the 2011 Canadian federal election, there were 75 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 24.4% of all members of the House.

Background

Timeline

See also: By-elections to the 40th Canadian Parliament

Changes in Quebec seats held (2008–2011)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup	May 21, 2009	Paul Crête	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned to run in provincial Rivière-du-Loup by-election.	November 9, 2009	Bernard Généreux	█ Conservative
Hochelaga	September 16, 2009	Réal Ménard	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned to run in Montreal municipal election.	November 9, 2009	Daniel Paillé	█ Bloc Québécois
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia	October 22, 2010	Jean-Yves Roy	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned due to health issues			█ Vacant

Opinion Polling

See also: Opinion polling for the 2011 Canadian federal election

Predictions

Opinion polling the election campaign

Opinion polling from 2008 to 2011

Results

Summary

Quebec summary seat results in the 2011 Canadian federal election

Party		Votes	Vote %	Vote +/-	Seats	Seat +/-
	New Democratic	1 630 865	42.9%	30.7pp	59 / 75 (79%)	58
	Liberal	538 447	14.2%	9.6pp	7 / 75 (9%)	7
	Conservative	627 961	16.5%	5.2pp	5 / 75 (7%)	6
	Bloc Québécois	891 425	23.4%	14.7pp	4 / 75 (5%)	43
	Green	80 402	2.1%	1.4pp	0 / 75 (0%)	0
	Independent	23,819	0.6%	pp	0 / 75 (0%)	1
	Other	8,771	0.2%	pp	0 / 75 (0%)	0
Total		3,801,690	100%	–	75 / 75 (100%)	1

Comparison with national results

Results by party

Party		Popular vote %			Seats in caucus
		QC	Natl. avg.	diff.
	New Democratic	42.9	30.6	+12.6	59 / 103 (57%)
	Liberal	14.2	18.9	-4.7	7 / 34 (21%)
	Conservative	16.5	39.6	-23.1	5 / 166 (3%)
	Bloc Québécois	23.4	6.0	+17.4	4 / 4 (100%)
	Green	2.1	3.9	-1.8	0 / 1 (0%)
	Total	–	–	–	75 / 308 (24%)

New Democratic Party surge

The 2011 election saw the NDP massively increase their support, coming in second place nationally for the first time in their history. The surge in support began in Quebec, a province where the party had only ever won two seats before (Chambly in a 1990 by-election, and Outremont in a 2007 by-election), and only won 12.2% of the vote and a single seat in the previous election. The NDP surprised many observers by surpassing the Bloc in Quebec, which had dominated federal elections in Quebec since its formation in the early 1990s. The NDP surge became the dominant narrative of the last week of the campaign, as other parties turned their attacks on the party. Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the NDP candidate in Berthier—Maskinongé, won despite not running a campaign, barely speaking French at this time and being on holiday in Las Vegas at the time of the election. The NDP's rise in popularity was nicknamed Orange Crush, an allusion to the soft drink with the same name and the party's colour. It was also nicknamed the Orange Wave.

See also

• Political realignment