User:Pilover819/05022008

• Tropical Wave Number 1- May 3~4
• Tropical Wave Number 2- May 5~8
• Tropical Wave Number 3- May 8~20
• Tropical Wave Number 4- May 15~26
• Tropical Wave Number 5- May 15~May 30
• Tropical Wave Number 6- May 21~Active
• Tropical Wave Number 7- May 25~Active
• Tropical Wave Number 8- May 28~Active
• Tropical Wave Number 9- May 31~Active
• Tropical Storm Arthur- May 31~ June 2

May 2, 2008

May 2, 2008 1800 UTC

...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 2N20W EQUATOR AT 34W THEN 1N43W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N TO 9N EAST OF 20W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA ALONG 15W/16W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM ALSO INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LAST TWO DAYS...AND THE BAMAKO SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH/WAVE BETWEEN APRIL 30 AND MAY 1ST. BASED ON THIS DATA AND THE TIME OF THE YEAR...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE 18Z MAP.

May 3, 2008

May 3, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 16W/17W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N15W TO 8N19W.

May 3, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

May 3, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W.

May 3, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

May 4, 2008

May 4, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE WAS READJUSTED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SLOWER SPEED. WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

May 4, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 9N ALONG 21W/22W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ILL-DEFINED FLOW AROUND WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE. NO RELATED PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE MAY BE DROPPED AT THE NEXT ANALYSIS TIME.

May 4, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... THE 21W/22W TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05/0000 UTC WAS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 05/0600 UTC BASED ON ITS APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 18 HOURS EARLIER.

May 4, 2008 1800 UTC

Dropped.

May 5, 2008

May 5, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE 18Z SFC MAP...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT...MIMIC-TPW...FROM CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS CURRENTLY ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. THE GFS MODELS HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD REACHING 36W/37W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

May 5, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 7N ALONG 31W/32W MAY HAVE TO BE MOVED TO THE WEST FOR THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W.

May 5, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 7N ALONG 35W WAS MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH SATELLITE DATA/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 33W AND 36W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE WAVE THAN THE REST OF IT BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

May 5, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 32W-39W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

May 6, 2008

May 6, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W FROM 3N-10N MOVING W AT 10 KT. MINOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AS LARGE BUBBLE OF AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING TO COAST OF W AFRICA.

May 6, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W FROM 2N-9N MOVING W AT 15 KT. MINOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...MAINLY BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 4N-6N. AS OF 02Z...MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EARLIER ESTIMATES OF FORWARD MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW. MOISTURE FLUX INDICATES THE WAVE ALONG 42W AT 02Z.

May 6, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W FROM 1N-8N MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. PRESENT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AND BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY DUE TO LACK OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. AS OF 08Z...MOISTURE FLUX ON THE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS LIKELY ALONG 44W/45W. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

May 6, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 1N-8N MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 44W-47W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.

May 7, 2008

May 7, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W-49W FROM 2N-8N MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W-50W ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE. CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISH AS WAVE APPROACHES DRIER MORE HOSTILE ENVIRON TO INTENSIFY. LARGE BUBBLE OF DRY AFRICAN DUST ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE KEEPS AREA CLOUD FREE BUT BECOMES A RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY OF SEVERAL STATIONS ALONG ISLAND CHAIN.

May 7, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE CONTINUITY WOULD PLACE THE WAVE CLOSER TO 55W. WAVE IS WEAK AND IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHICH WILL WEAKEN IT FURTHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THE WAVE NEAR 54W AT 07/000 UTC. HOWEVER THERE IS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

May 7, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IT FURTHER. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

May 7, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ IS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG 26W/27W BETWEEN 2N-7N AND WILL BE INTRODUCED AS A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 24W-27W. SSMI MICROWAVE DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORMING.

May 8, 2008

May 8, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED 60W SOUTH OF 13N AT 07/1800 UTC. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED EVER SINCE IT WAS PUT ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. IT MAY BE OMITTED FROM THE 08/0000 UTC ANALYSIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

May 8, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 60W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN N BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE E OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N24W TO 4N29W.

May 8, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN N BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE E OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N25W TO 6N30W.

May 8, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 8N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/WIDELY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N26W TO 5N32W.

May 9, 2008

May 9, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND N OF 4N.

May 9, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

May 9, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 8W MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION.

May 9, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT. WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ BUT IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE BETWEEN 5N-7N.

May 10, 2008

May 10, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37/38W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT. LATESTS VIS SAT IMAGERY FOR THE DAY REVEALED WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N WHERE THERE ARE SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ALSO SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE WITH A PRONOUNCED BULGE OF MOISTURE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUE.

May 10, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W AT 09/0000 UTC SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W... AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY ARRIVE AT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY.

May 10, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W AT 09/0600 UTC SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY.

May 10, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ...HOWEVER BASED ON A RECENT QSCAT PASS IT IS ABOVE THE SFC. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY OF THIS WAVE WITH ITS OVERALL MOISTURE FIELD THINNING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING MORE ABSORBED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 3N-6N.

May 11, 2008

May 11, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LAST FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE DAY INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY OF THIS WAVE WITH ITS OVERALL MOISTURE FIELD THINNING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING MORE ABSORBED IN THE ITCZ AS IT APPROACHES THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS FROM 3N-7N.

May 11, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

May 11, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

May 11, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.

May 12, 2008

May 12, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 43W AND THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

May 12, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE. POSITION BASED ON SURFACE WINDS REMAINING NE AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA WHICH INDICATES THAT WAVE IS STILL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

May 12, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 50W-52W IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAVE. POSITION BASED ON SURFACE WINDS REMAINING NE AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA WHICH INDICATES THAT WAVE IS STILL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

May 12, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED WITH VIS IMAGERY AND 09Z QSCAT DATA SHOWING LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW ACROSS THE ANALYZED AXIS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVECTION WHICH HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SCATTERED MODERATE IN NATURE...WITHIN 120 NM W AND 180 NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-7N.

May 13, 2008

May 13, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE GUYANAS REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THIS AREA. THE GFS MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WED.

May 13, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE GUIANAS REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. THE GFS MODEL HAS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE SPREADING OVER GUYANA...E VENEZUELA AND THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WED.

May 13, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE GUIANAS REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 52W-55W. THE GFS MODEL HAS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE SPREADING OVER GUYANA...E VENEZUELA AND THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WED.

May 13, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 52W-55W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 59W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

May 14, 2008

May 14, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS STILL ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE GUYANAS REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

May 14, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GUIANAS REGION AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BRINGING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS.

May 14, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GUIANAS REGION...SE VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS.

May 14, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A FAINT MOISTURE PEAK TRAVELING WEST N OF VENEZUELA...AND THIS FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH CONTINUITY. SYNOPTIC SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER N VENEZUELA AND THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ABOUT 1-1.5 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAK WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE MORE LINKED TO THE FRONT NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES.

May 15, 2008

May 15, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 18Z SFC MAP ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PHOTOS AND AN ASCAT PASS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD TO AROUND 12N. ALSO...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVE THAT PROBABLY MOVED OUT OF AFRICA THIS MORNING.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS INDICATE SOME WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE WAVE.

May 15, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR 12N.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS N VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

May 15, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 12N.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF WAVE AXIS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS N CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

May 15, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MORE DISORGANIZED TODAY AS VISIBLE IMAGES ONLY INDICATE A FAINT BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE AXIS IS PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THE BROAD STRUCTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS ALONG 47W S OF 11N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACEABLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION...BUT WAS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER... TODAY THE WAVE IS MORE DEFINED WITH VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 6N... ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W ALONG 71W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS POSITION ADJUSTMENT WAS BASED ON A FAINT MOISTURE PLUME...EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION...TRACKING W ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. REGARDLESS OF THE LOCATION...THE WAVE IS WEAK AND IS NOT MUCH OF A WEATHER PLAYER AT THE MOMENT.

May 16, 2008

May 16, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N18W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS PRETTY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.

THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA WITH IT AXIS ALONG 71W/72W. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

May 16, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 8N21W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 3N-8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A FAIR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE NORTH ALONG 49W SUPPORTING THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER W VENEZUELA/E COLOMBIA WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...NO OTHER AVAILABLE DATA CAN CURRENTLY CONFIRM OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE WAVE WILL BE EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD IN HOPES THAT MORNING DATA WILL SHED SOME LIGHT ON ITS EXISTENCE.

May 16, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 7N21W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 4N-8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A FAIR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE NORTH ALONG 49W SUPPORTING THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W OVER N COLOMBIA S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION N OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS N COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...NO OTHER AVAILABLE DATA CAN CURRENTLY CONFIRM OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF W COLOMBIA. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE WAVE HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD IN ORDER TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MOTION.

May 16, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS BROAD IN ITS CLOUD AND MOISTURE STRUCTURE...AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. THE AXIS IS PLACED ALONG AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND OVERALL PEAK IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W AND 180 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 8N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DISORGANIZED WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE W EDGE OF ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD FIELD...DUE TO ELY SHEAR. VIS IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL TURNING CONCENTRATED NEAR 7N. SHOWER AND TSTMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 76W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT MAY BE ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N COLOMBIA. NO OTHER AVAILABLE DATA PROVIDES GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE...SO IT IS MAINLY BASED ON THE TPW ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION.

May 17, 2008

May 17, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM W AND 180 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING FRENCH GUIANA. THIS WAVE IS DISORGANIZED WITH THE AXIS IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS S OF 8N.

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 76W/77W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT MAY BE ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER.

May 17, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED AS THE WAVE MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

May 17, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED AND IS NOT INDICATED BY THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 76W TO 79W.

May 17, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 81W.

May 18, 2008

May 18, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS S OF 8N. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM ALSO SHOWS THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GUYANAS REGION AND COASTAL WATERS. A BULGE OF MOISTURE IS SEEN ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W/80W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE EPAC. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE AFFECTING EASTERN PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

May 18, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS DISTORTED AS IT CONTINUES OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 10N FROM 55W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W S OF 10N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-80W.

May 18, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 587W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS DISTORTED AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND OVER GUYANA.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W/82W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-82W.

May 18, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS DISTORTED AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA. THUS...THE POSITION IS LARGELY BASED ON CONTINUITY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS NOW CENTERED ALONG 83W IN THE E PACIFIC.

May 19, 2008

May 19, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND FROM THE BRAZIL/VENEZUELA BORDER BETWEEN 4N AND 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W IN VENEZUELA...THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

May 19, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SHOW A FAINT APEX OR WEAK INVERTED V PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LINEAR IN STRUCTURE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W S OF 14N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE MAY BE ADJUSTED W TO NEAR 65W ON THE 06Z MAP BASED ON A MOISTURE BULGE EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. THAT POSITION WOULD ALSO PLACE THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ...HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WAVE.

May 19, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 40W/41W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGES SHOW A FAINT APEX OR WEAK INVERTED V PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LINEAR IN STRUCTURE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 3N-8N.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W SLIGHTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W/66W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE ADJUSTMENT WAS BASED ON A WWD MOVING MOISTURE BULGE EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION THAT IS VERY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE. MUCH OF THE WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS OVER WRN VENEZUELA.

May 19, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 41W/42W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N. THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W/66W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. MUCH OF THE WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS OVER WRN VENEZUELA.

May 20, 2008

May 20, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE TO THE WAVE WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 40W-45W. MOST LIKELY ANY PRECIPITATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. MUCH OF THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS OVER W VENEZUELA.

May 20, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

May 20, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

May 20, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING FOCUSED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER A FAIRLY LARGE 420 NM AREA EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 3N-7N...ENHANCED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED W ALONG 73W S OF 13N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS ADJUSTMENT WAS BASED ON A WESTWARD MOISTURE SURGE EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION AND FITS WELL WITH LONG TERM CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION... THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND IS PRODUCING LITTLE WEATHER INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

May 21, 2008

May 21, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING FOCUSED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 7N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-11N EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ALSO MIMIC TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS SHOWS NORTHERN MOISTURE SURGE COMING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER A FAIRLY LARGE 420 NM AREA EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-7N...ENHANCED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY SLIGHT LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 13N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON A WESTWARD MOISTURE SURGE EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION AND FITS WELL WITH LONG TERM CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION... THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL N COLOMBIA.

May 21, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE BUT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 7N16W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TURNING IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 12W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 5N51W IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION INLAND AS WELL.

May 21, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE POSSIBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE BUT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 7N18W. ANY CONVECTION IS 3WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 5N51W IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 47W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 46W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION INLAND AS WELL.

May 21, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 8N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS MODERATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...MOST OF ITS DEEP CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS NOW E OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER W COLOMBIA. WHILE ONLY A WEAK SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION DOES SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE CARIBBEAN DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

May 22, 2008

May 22, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 8N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 4N-8N. HOWEVER...MOST OF ITS DEEP CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS NOW E OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO E PANAMA AND COASTAL W COLOMBIA. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS W COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FARTHER WEST DUE TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITCZ AXIS LOCATED IN THE EPAC.

May 22, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. A MID LEVEL ROTATION IS NEAR 7N21W INDICATING THE PEAK OF THE WAVE IS ALONG THE AXIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED N OF FRENCH GUIANA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INLAND OVER PANAMA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

May 22, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. A MID LEVEL ROTATION IS NEAR 7N22W ALONG THE AXIS. ANY CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED N OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INLAND OVER PANAMA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

May 22, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS AND A CLEAR PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS TURNING IS LOW LATITUDE CENTERED NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EASY TO LOCATE TODAY AS AN INVERTED-V SHAPE IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY DRY MID-UPPER FLOW TO THE W OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 80W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS THE S PORTION IS NOW EMBEDDED IN STRONG SW/W LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIB...BUT THIS SEEMS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

May 23, 2008

May 23, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS AND A CLEAR PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS TURNING IS LOW LATITUDE CENTERED NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS SHOWS A SMALL NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE AXIS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY DRY MID-UPPER FLOW TO THE W OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONLY REMAIN INLAND ACROSS E GUYANA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS THE S PORTION IS NOW EMBEDDED IN STRONG SW/W LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIB...BUT THIS SEEMS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

May 23, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 7N. AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAKENING LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 7.5N55W TO 8.5N58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

May 23, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 6N. AREA OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN WAVE AXIS AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAKENING LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF GUYANA E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15 BETWEEN 82W-85W.

May 23, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N... BASED ON PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL TURNING APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CURVATURE IN AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS... DESPITE MUCH RAIN FLAGGING. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO AN AREA N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD TO TRACK AS A WEAK INVERTED V-PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY W AND HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SW WINDS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 12N.

May 24, 2008

May 24, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 7N28W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED TO AN AREA N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD TO TRACK WITH A SMALL NORTHWARD MOISTURE BULGE EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS. TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY INLAND OVER N GUYANA AND NE VENEZUELA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER E PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AND HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SW WINDS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

May 24, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 7N/8N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A SMALL NORTHWARD MOISTURE BULGE ON THE LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 17N INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 10 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

May 24, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 7N/8N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND FR0M 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ON THE LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 17N INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 10 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

May 24, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT CLEARLY INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. LOW-LEVEL TURNING ALONG WITH A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 7N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER AIR TIME-SECTION ANALYSIS FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO INDICATE THAT THE WAVE PASSED OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. SFC OBS ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST WINDWARD ISLANDS DEPICT THE EXPECTED NE-SE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 17N. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE WAVE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD. MID-LEVEL ROTATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...THIS ROTATION HAS YET TO REACH THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL NELY FLOW HAS SHEARED MOST OF THE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC.

May 25, 2008

May 25, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 00Z SURFACE MAP ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 11N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AND 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC TURNING. A BAND OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 6N24W 4N25W 2N24W. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR 2N20W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT ON THE 18Z SFC MAP. LOW-LEVEL TURNING ALONG WITH A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS APPARENT NEAR 35W ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL DERIVED WINDS AND MIMIC-TPW SHOW THAT THE WAVE IS PROBABLY NEAR 35W. THIS WAVE WILL BE RELOCATED FARTHER W ON THE 00Z SFC MAP.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 63W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER AIR TIME-SECTION ANALYSIS FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO INDICATE THAT THE WAVE PASSED OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS. SFC OBS ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST WINDWARD ISLANDS DEPICT THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ALONG 86W/87W S OF 17N MOVING VERY SLOWLY WWD. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK SOUTH OF 10N DUE TO A LARGE SWATH OF WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EPAC. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER N COSTA RICA.

May 25, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE WAS COMPARATIVELY MORE IMPRESSIVE AND THERE WAS MORE OF IT 24 HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 13N TO 20N...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING/ WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE FOLLOWED. THE MOST RECENT PRECIPITATION IS SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS REMAIN ELSEWHERE FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM MEXICO TO GUATEMALA ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION.

May 25, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM 13N TO 20N...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRETTY MUCH HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE TIME BEING. SOME OF THE HIGHER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE BEING BLOWN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SHREADS OF SHOWERS HAVE BLOWN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM MEXICO TO GUATEMALA ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THE ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION.

May 25, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 64W-70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W FROM 11N -20N. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DISSIPATED.

May 26, 2008

May 26, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT CLEARLY INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE RELATED TO THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-11N

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS BETWEEN BONAIRE AND CURACAO. THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE BASED ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. INSTEAD...A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 21Z MAP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE PRESSURE FIELD SHOW THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH.

May 26, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE HAS DISSIPATED. IT HAS BEEN REPLACED ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS BY A SURFACE TROUGH 17N93W 20N94W 23N94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT 26/0045 UTC COVERED THE AREA FROM WESTERN HONDURAS TO COASTAL MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING.

May 26, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/27W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE AT ALL.

May 26, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOW DIFFICULT TO TRACK. VERY LITTLE LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTION IS CONFINED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 67W-71W.

May 27, 2008

May 27, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 31N S OF 12N...OR ABOUT 1750 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING W 10-15 KT. STRONG HIGH PRES AND INCREASED TRADES E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W HAVE SUBDUED MOST OF THE CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. IF ANYTHING...LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUGGEST THE WAVE MAY BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER E ALONG 29W AND S OF 9N. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED ON THE 27/0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ.

STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W S OF 22N...OR ABOUT 450 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS AMPLIFYING AS IT APPROACHES A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THUS THE AXIS HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHT NW/SE TILT. STRONG HIGH PRES AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN TRADES HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE WAVE AS WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN SPREAD ACROSS PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUE AND WED.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED 71W/72W S OF 15N...NEAR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...MOVING W 10 KT. THE COMPOSITE TPW PRODUCT...AS WELL AS MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS...SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE AXIS IS NEAR 70W (NEAR ARUBA). THIS APPEARS TO AGREE WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS N END OF THE WAVE AXIS LAGGING BACK TOWARDS PUERTO RICO IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

May 27, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 29W S OF 8N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED WITH ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N51W TO 14N55W.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N BASED ON MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND 73W.

May 27, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 29W/30W S OF 8N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO ONLY MOVED 2 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH MAKES THE VALIDITY QUESTIONABLE. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 21N57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

May 27, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS IS NOT EASY TO FIND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N51W 7N54W 14N58W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 19N IN HAITI...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO EASILY IDENTIFIABLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

May 28, 2008

May 28, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 32W S OF 9N. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE REMAINS SUBDUED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND MAY BE LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER W NEAR 35W/36W IN THE VICINITY OF A SWIRL WITHIN THE ITCZ. BASED ON THE ANALYZED POSITION YESTERDAY...THIS WOULD GIVE THE WAVE A MEAN SPEED OF ABOUT 15 KT. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE POSITION WILL BE INDICATED ON THE 28/0000 UTC ANALYSIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N57W TO 23N59W...ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A NW/SE TILT DUE TO A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IN THE TRADES...WHICH INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THEN TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO ON WED. THE TRADES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W S OF 19N...FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF A LARGE INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND OTHER SHOWERS MOVING NW ACROSS HAITI AND JAMAICA. THE WAVE POSITION AGREES WELL WITH EXTRAPOLATION AND THE CIMSS 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY TRACKER. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND LEAD TO A NORTHWARD SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REST OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-80W.

May 28, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 20W/21W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 36W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N58W TO 21N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS NOW A SEPARATE FEATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

May 28, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 37W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N61W TO 21N63W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 14N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 78W/79W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

May 28, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS MODEL MOISTURE FIELD GUIDANCE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 38W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT BASED ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION FROM CIMSS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 9N64W TO 21N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 80W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE EPAC AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

May 29, 2008

May 29, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE TPW PRODUCT INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST TO NEAR 30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED S OF THE ISLANDS NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 23W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W S OF 9N...OR 800 NM E OF FRENCH GUIANA...MOVING W 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE CIMSS MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT CURRENTLY SHOWS A SMALL INFLECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE ANALYZED AXIS...PROBABLY AS A RESULT OF THE WAVE TO THE E AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN A BIT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND VENEZUELA ALONG 65W/66W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE AXIS HAS BECOME STRETCHED N/S AND BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A 15-20 KT SURGE IN THE TRADES OCCURRING E OF THE AXIS PAST THE LESSER ANTILLES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS EXTEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 62W-68W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO MOVING W ACROSS MUCH OF VENEZUELA FROM THE GUIANA HIGHLANDS NW TO LAKE MARACAIBO.

TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS PANAMA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC NE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE A WELL-DEFINED AXIS. HOWEVER...THE WAVE'S INFLUENCE HAS BEGUN TO DRAW ABUNDANT MOISTURE/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NWD FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 19N BETWEEN 70W-85W.

May 29, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 40W/41W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N FROM OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA AND A NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT IS OFF THE WEST COAST OF COSTA RICA...INDICATING THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

May 29, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE AHEAD OF A SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N 26W-32.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 83W/84W BETWEEN 13N-20N MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BEING FORCED NW BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA.

May 29, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE AHEAD OF A SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N 28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WHICH IS AIDING IN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 84W/85W BETWEEN 12N-20N MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BEING FORCED NW BY TROPICAL STORM ALMA OFF THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA.

May 30, 2008

May 30, 2008 0000 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ALMA MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 87.1W... OR NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER ABOUT 115 NM S OF TEGUCIGALPA...AT 30/0000 UTC MOVING N 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. ALMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SQUALLY WEATHER SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE AS A STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS N FROM THE PACIFIC. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15" ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 20"... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS.

SOME REPORTED 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS INCLUDE PANAMA CITY PANAMA 1.97" SANTIAGO PANAMA 5.55" DAVID PANAMA 5.75" SAN JOSE COSTA RICA 3.07"

SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED PAST THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 31W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. TPW PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 21N EVEN THOUGH THERE IS VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SMALL INFLECTION IS NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS ITSELF.

LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W S OF 8N...ABOUT 450 NM E OF FRENCH GUIANA...MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SPECIFICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE FIELD. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE GUIANAS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 73W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ODDLY ENOUGH...THIS WAVE HAS MARKED THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT RUNS INTO THE EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE AXIS HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATED NOW THAT IT IS MOVING INTO A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE YET MIMIC-TPW PLACES IT NICELY NEAR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 67W-78W ALTHOUGH THIS IS LIKELY ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS ALSO OVER NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE HAS BECOME WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. ALMA OVER WESTERN NICARAGUA AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. IN FACT...A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS TO NEAR JAMAICA WITH AN E/W LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIFTING NWD FROM 15N-21N W OF 78W. THE WAVE AXIS WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE 30/0000 UTC ANALYSIS IN FAVOR OF THE TROUGH.

May 30, 2008 0600 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ALMA IS INLAND OVER SW HONDURAS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 87.3W AT 30/0600 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 9 NM SSW OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MOVING N AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. ALMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING N THEN MORE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CLIPPING THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE FRI/EARLY SAT BEFORE MOVING ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AS A REMNANT LOW. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR... GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE AS A STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS N FROM THE PACIFIC. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15 IN ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 20 IN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 14N EVEN THOUGH THERE IS VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS AT A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND SO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS INDISCERNIBLE. ANY CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM ALMA. THE AXIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA/N COLOMBIA.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 85W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 30/0000 UTC ANALYSIS IN FAVOR OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

May 30, 2008 1200 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS DOWNGRADED AT 30/0900 UTC TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 87.6W AT 30/0900 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 40 NM NW OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. ALMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVE MORE NW THEN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE S US AND N GULF OF MEXICO CLIPPING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ALMA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FROM COSTA RICA...THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS N FROM THE PACIFIC AND POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION OF ALMA OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS OR A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE WAKE OF ALMA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15 IN ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 20 IN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 16N EVEN WITH A WEAK SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND FURTHER SOUTH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS AT A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND SO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS INDISCERNIBLE. ANY CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA. THE AXIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA.

May 30, 2008 1800 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 17N. ANY CONVECTION IS S OF 8N AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW AND SLIGHT CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE EXHIBITS LOW AMPLITUDE AND REMAINS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE AXIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 22N MOVING NW AT 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE PARALLELS THE E BELIZE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER W HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.

May 31, 2008

May 31, 2008 0000 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 17N. CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 8N AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE. THERE IS SLIGHT CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS AGAIN W OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AXIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE TIME BEING.

May 31, 2008 0600 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 16N. THIS WAVE AXIS BASED ON MIMIC-TPW APPEARS TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE RATHER THAN THE TRUE WAVE AXIS AND MAY NEED TO BE RELOCATED LATER. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NWD TO ABOUT 15N WITH A WEAK SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST TO THE W ALONG 41W S OF 10N. ANY CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND FURTHER SOUTH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS AT A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND SO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS INDISCERNIBLE. ANY CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

May 31, 2008 1200 UTC

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N16W TO 4N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM 9N17W TO 7N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-16W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 51W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MASKING ANY SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

May 31, 2008 1800 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 88.5W OR ABOUT 45 MILES NNW OF BELIZE CITY AT 31/1700 UTC MOVING WNW 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DESPITE MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLIER THIS MORNING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 82W-89W. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS STORM MOVES OVER LAND WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. MIMIC-TPW CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS AND A MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 7N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 3N-11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS WITH A BROAD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 1N40W TO 8N41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED AT 1200 UTC BASED PRIMARILY ON MIMIC-TPW AND WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MASKING ANY SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.