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Thresholds of the War

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Here are also some thresholds (1, 25 and 1,000) from the war. I would propose to add one paragraph in the Casualties section. Jakob Hauter writes the armed conflict started on April 12-13 with the first battle-related casualty.

The events of April 12–13 are key to the second critical juncture of the conflict. This critical juncture is of particular importance because it encompasses the crossing of three escalation thresholds—the appearance of armed groups, the deployment of the military, and armed clashes—within a short period of time. Only the first one of these thresholds, the appearance of armed groups, had been crossed before elsewhere in the Donbas, namely during the previous week when separatist activists in Donetsk and Luhansk seized military-grade weaponry from buildings they had occupied. Outside the two regional centers, however, no armed men had been spotted so far. More importantly, the Kyiv authorities had not previously responded with force. This time, armed units were deployed to Sloviansk and met armed resistance, which led to the first battle-related casualty in the Donbas. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s methodology, the first battle-related casualty marks the dividing line between peace and armed conflict (Pettersson 2020, 6). Moreover, the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area remained the central theater of armed combat in the Donbas until the separatist forces withdrew to Donetsk in early July.[1]

After Sloviansk, the southern port city of Mariupol was the first place in the Donbas where tensions crossed the armed conflict threshold[2]

Pettersson, Therése. 2020. “UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook Version 20.1.” Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). 2020. https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ucdpprio/ucdp-prio-acd-201.pdf.

Serhiy Kudelia writes the minimum threshold used for identifying a violent confrontation as an armed conflict are 25 casualties that has been surpassed on May 5 and by mid-July the minimum threshold for classifying it as a war of 1,000 casualties was surpassed.

The capture of the police station and SBU office in Sloviansk on April 12 added qualitatively new dynamics to the mobilization process. It marked the forceful removal of Ukraine’s sovereign control over the entire town and the emergence of the first organized nonstate armed unit openly challenging the Ukrainian state. Predictably, the Ukrainian government responded with an armed countermobilization accompanied by an assault on the rebel bases under Girkin’s command. By May 5, or just over three weeks later, the intensity of these altercations reached the level of a minor armed conflict.2 By mid-July the conflict had produced over one thousand casualties, the minimum threshold for classifying it as a war.3

2 Author’s calculations based on open-source information regarding the casualties among Ukrainian forces, insurgents, and civilians. By May 5 over twenty-five people were killed as part of the conflict. This surpassed the minimum threshold normally used for identifying a violent confrontation as an armed conflict. For an exact list of casualties, see Appendix. The categories and coding criteria are based on Therese Pettersson, “UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook v 24.1 (https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/),” 2024.

3 The casualties data is based on the Report on Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, “Human Rights Situation in Ukraine,” July 15, 2014, https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Countries/UA/HRMMUReport15June2014.pdf. The category coding is based on Pettersson, “UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset… .”[3]

Arel/Driscoll write the 1,000 casualties threshold was probably surpassed in early August.

The number of civilian deaths began to rise substantially. It probably reached 1,000, the threshold for defining a civil war, sometime in early August.[4]

--Jo1971 (talk) 14:36, 26 May 2025 (UTC)[reply]

References

  1. ^ Hauter, Jakob (2023). Russia's Overlooked Invasion: The Causes of the 2014 Outbreak of War in Ukraine's Donbas. Stuttgart: Ibidem. p. 126. ISBN 978-3-8382-1803-8.
  2. ^ Hauter, Jakob (2023). Russia's Overlooked Invasion: The Causes of the 2014 Outbreak of War in Ukraine's Donbas. p. 58.
  3. ^ Kudelia, Serhiy (2025). Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia's War on Ukraine. Oxford University Press. pp. 49–50. doi:10.1093/9780197795576.001.0001. ISBN 978-0-19-779553-8.
  4. ^ Arel, Dominique; Driscoll, Jesse (2023). Ukraine's Unnamed War: Before the Russian Invasion of 2022. Cambridge University Press. p. 166. doi:10.1017/9781009052924. ISBN 978-1-009-05292-4.

Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 9 June 2025

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remve duplciate ciationsand shorten the article 45.49.236.6 (talk) 23:50, 9 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. Which citations are duplicated? And what text do you propose to remove? LizardJr8 (talk) 01:02, 10 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Lies there were no Russian paramilitaries in the region

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Those were Russian speaking minorities which got attacked by azov pro nazi paramilitaries 2001:56B:3FF9:C3A5:C2B:F6EA:D671:1EC (talk) 14:33, 18 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

 Not done You have not provided verification from a reliable source. I also suggest that you have a look at enwiki's policies on original research, neutrality, & the Wikipedia is not a publisher of original thought section of What Wikipedia is not. Peaceray (talk) 16:10, 18 June 2025 (UTC)[reply]

causes

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How convenient that we're forgetting about that tiny little coup d'etat that preceded this invasion, my dear weebs. 2A02:A020:380:F426:B31B:4ACB:1ACC:2785 (talk) 01:14, 21 July 2025 (UTC)[reply]