Jump to content

Talk:Gartner hype cycle

Page contents not supported in other languages.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Request for editors to update article introduction

[edit]

My name is Burcu and I work for Gartner. I've posted several requests over at the Gartner article Talk page and one at the Magic Quandrant article Talk page. I have one brief request for this article: I'm hoping we can lightly revise the article introduction to provide a few additional details about the hype cycle's origin.

Right now the introduction reads as follows:

Current article introduction

The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical presentation developed, used and branded by the American research, advisory and information technology firm Gartner to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies. The hype cycle claims to provide a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity of emerging technologies through five phases.[1]

My suggestion is to change it to the following:

Revised article introduction

The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical presentation developed, used and branded by the American research and advisory firm Gartner to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies. The hype cycle framework was introduced in 1995 by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn[2] to provide a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity of emerging technologies through five phases.[3]

A quick review of changes: I changed "research, advisory and information technology firm" to "research and advisory firm" as that's how Gartner is commonly referred to on first reference in media coverage (see here, here, and here) and it's already clear from the context that Gartner focuses on technology. I also noted that the framework was introduced in 1995 by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn, as she is widely recognized as the creator. I supported this claim with a citation to an Engineering & Technology journal article from 2015.

I have a conflict of interest so I won't be making this change myself. Please let me know if you have any questions. Thanks. BurcuAtGartner (talk) 18:52, 8 April 2025 (UTC) BurcuAtGartner (talk) 18:52, 8 April 2025 (UTC)[reply]

The lead should generally summarize the body (WP:LEAD). Adding Jackie Fenn seems totally correct to me but I'd like to see it in the body if possible. Perhaps a section on the origin of the concept? The linked source looks like it could support at least a paragraph on it. Rusalkii (talk) 18:14, 9 April 2025 (UTC)[reply]
That's a great suggestion, Rusalkii. What do you think about this as a potential History section:
Gartner's hype cycle framework was introduced in 1995 by analyst Jackie Fenn, who had joined the firm the year before.[2] In her research reports, Fenn identified common patterns related to the maturity of emerging technologies.[4] Fenn referred to this familiar progression as a "hype cycle" and created a graph depicting its ups and downs with each distinct stage given a title, starting with Technology trigger and ending with Plateau of productivity.[5] The chart was included in a one-off research report, but it was popular with other Gartner analysts and clients and the "Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies" was soon developed into an annual report.[4]
I'm sure this section could be expanded, but this seems like a good start and it would nicely flow into the Five phases section. Let me know what you think. BurcuAtGartner (talk) 12:13, 10 April 2025 (UTC)[reply]
 Go ahead: I have reviewed these proposed changes and suggest that you go ahead and make the proposed changes to the page. Rusalkii (talk) 16:37, 10 April 2025 (UTC)[reply]
Thanks for the careful review, Rusalkii. I went ahead and made the update. I have a similar request at the Magic Quadrant article Talk page that it would be great if you could look at as well since you seem to be interested in the topic. But totally understand if you're busy with other Wiki work. Really appreciate your help here. BurcuAtGartner (talk) 19:23, 10 April 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Request about new Examples section

[edit]

This is Burcu from Gartner again. I noticed that an editor, Novem Linguae, added a new Examples section to the bottom of this article, along with a request to add content.

To this end, I put together a draft detailing a few specific hype cycle examples in chronological order:

Hype cycle examples

Gartner's most notable hype cycle diagram was the e-business hype cycle created by analyst Alex Drobik in 1999 during the dot-com bubble.[6][7] The diagram suggested that e-business was currently in the Peak of inflated expectations phase and would soon drop into the Trough of disillusionment.[7] The report containing the diagram was published in November 1999, and the U.S. stock market crashed four months later.[7] A Source Code Capital report noted that "Drobik not only predicted the decline of e-businesses in 2001, but also the birth of 'true' e-business after 2003" as "LinkedIn (2002), Skype (2003), Facebook (2004) and Twitter (2006) all emerged during this period."[7]

In 2016, Gartner began including blockchain on its emerging technologies hype cycle.[8] Blockchain initially appeared between the Technology trigger and Peak of inflated expectations phases.[8] In 2019, Gartner placed blockchain near the bottom of the Trough of disillusionment phase, and estimated that more than 90 percent of enterprise blockchain implementations would fail or require replacement.[8] That same year Gartner began publishing a hype cycle diagram for discrete blockchain technologies.[8] By 2024, most of these technologies had transitioned from the Peak of inflated expectations phase to the Trough of disillusionment phase.[9]

Gartner's 2024 emergent technologies hype cycle placed most AI technologies within the Innovation trigger phase.[10] AI-augmented software engineering was within the Peak of inflated expectations phase, and Generative AI was entering the Trough of disillusionment phase.[10] The same chart also showed humanoid working robotics within the Innovation trigger phase.[10] A separate hype cycle diagram for mobile robots and drones predicted that the market for supply chain usage would mature within the next five years.[11]

Per the wording above, the e-business diagram is arguably the most famous example of the Gartner hype cycle, so I started with that one. I thought the blockchain example was useful as I could pull from the cited textbook to show how blockchain's positioning changed over time. And then I cited more recent news coverage to discuss additional examples.

Would this work as content for the Examples section? BurcuAtGartner (talk) 16:40, 7 May 2025 (UTC)[reply]

  1. ^ Linden, Alexander; Fenn, Jackie (2003-05-30). "Understanding Gartner's hype cycles". Gartner. Archived from the original on 2023-06-27. Retrieved 2023-06-27.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  2. ^ a b Edwards, Chris (May 2015). "Waiting for the drop". Engineering & Technology. 10 (4): 32–53. Retrieved April 7, 2025.
  3. ^ Linden, Alexander; Fenn, Jackie (2003-05-30). "Understanding Gartner's hype cycles". Gartner. Archived from the original on 2023-06-27. Retrieved 2023-06-27.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  4. ^ a b Fenn, Jackie; Raskino, Mark (2008). Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time. Harvard Business Review Press. p. xiii. ISBN 978-1-4221-2110-8.
  5. ^ Walton, Nigel; Pyper, Neil (2020). Technology Strategy. Bloomsbury. ISBN 1137605340.
  6. ^ Bresciani, Sabrina; Eppler, Martin J. (2010). "Gartner's Magic Quadrant and Hype Cycle" (PDF). Università della Svizzera italiana. Retrieved April 29, 2025. The most influential Hype Cycle was the E-Business-Hype Cycle created by Alex Drobik in fall 1999 that predicted the burst of the dot-com bubble in spring 2000.
  7. ^ a b c d Xiaoliang Wang (November 2, 2017). "Pitfalls in Technological Predictions". Source Code Capital. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  8. ^ a b c d Lacity, Mary C.; Lupien, Steven C. Blockchain Fundamentals for Web 3.0. Epic Books. p. 200. ISBN 1682262251.
  9. ^ Gross, Grant (March 6, 2025). "RIP (finally) to the blockchain hype". CIO. Retrieved May 6, 2025.
  10. ^ a b c Field, Shivaune (August 29, 2024). "The emerging technology you need on your radar: Gartner's 2024 Hype Cycle revealed". Forbes. Retrieved May 6, 2025.
  11. ^ Vella, Heidi (November 21, 2024). "Supply Chain AI Mobile Robots Ready for Business: Gartner". IoT World Today. Retrieved May 6, 2025.