Pentagon pizza theory
The Pentagon pizza theory is the informal observation that spikes in fast food orders near U.S. government buildings such as The Pentagon, CIA, and the White House occur right before a major international crisis.[1]
Background
[edit]In 1990, Frank Meeks, a Domino's franchisee in Washington, told the Los Angeles Times about an observation of extraordinary late-night deliveries to the Pentagon, CIA and the White House. Meeks had noted that on August 1, the CIA had ordered a one-night record of 21 pizzas, and the following day Iraq invaded Kuwait, starting the Gulf War.[2] At first, Meeks thought it was a coincidence but observed a similar surge in deliveries in December 1998 during the impeachment hearings of Bill Clinton.[3] In response, Wolf Blitzer, CNN's Pentagon correspondent at the time, remarked "Bottom line for journalists: Always monitor the pizzas".[4]
In August 2024, an X account was created known as the "Pentagon Pizza Report" which monitors live visit data on Google Maps in Arlington, though it has no insight on actual order volume or where pizzas are being delivered.[5]
Examples
[edit]In 1983 and 1989, spikes of pizza orders to the Pentagon were noted by Domino's franchise owner Frank Meeks the night before the U.S. military invasions of Grenada and Panama.[5]
On August 1, 1990, the CIA ordered 21 pizzas in a single night prior to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait the following morning, which kickstarted the Gulf War. Meeks claimed that pizza orders in the Washington area also soared prior to the launch of Operation Desert Storm in 1991.[1]
In January 1998, immediately after the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal made headlines, Meeks stated the White House placed $2,600 in orders to Domino's across three days.[6] On December 1998, during the impeachment hearings of Bill Clinton and launch of Operation Desert Fox in Iraq, the White House ordered "32 percent more extra-cheese pizzas than normal", with $11,600 worth of orders in Capitol Hill.[6][1]
On April 13, 2024, unusually high activity at a Papa John's in Washington D.C., according to observations of Google Maps' popular times graph, coincided with Iran's launch of drones into Israeli territory.[7]
On June 12, 2025, at 7 p.m. EDT, the "Pentagon Pizza Report" account noted a "huge surge in activity" in Google's live visit data at the District Pizza Palace, which is two miles away from the Pentagon. At 8 p.m. EDT, Israel conducted a bombing campaign against Iran, triggering a war between the two countries.[8][9]
On June 22, 2025, at 10:38 p.m. EDT, high levels of activity was reported at a Papa John's two miles from the Pentagon one hour before Donald Trump announced U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities.[10][11]
Accuracy
[edit]Zenobia Homan, a senior researcher at the King's College London Centre for Science and Security Studies, responded to the theory with skepticism, pointing out the potential for confirmation bias. Homan stated "I'm not saying [the theory is] wrong, but I want to see way more data. When else do spikes occur? How often do they have absolutely nothing to do with geopolitics?".[8]
In a statement to Newsweek in 2025, the Department of Defense denied the theory, claiming that that the Pentagon has plenty of internal food vendors in the Pentagon that is available to late-night workers. It criticized the accuracy of the timeline provided by the Pentagon Pizza Report.[12][13]
See also
[edit]- Waffle House Index – Informal metric to rate disaster severity
- Big Mac Index – Economic index published by The Economist
- Pizza Principle – Comparison between the cost of a slice of pizza and a subway ride in New York City
References
[edit]- ^ a b c Steafel, Eleanor (June 13, 2025). "How three pizza restaurants predicted Israel's attack on Iran". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ "Article clipped from The Los Angeles Times". The Los Angeles Times. January 16, 1991. p. 172. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ Mouriquand, David. "What is the Pentagon Pizza theory eating away at the internet?". Euronews. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ Miller, Matt (July 29, 2016). "What Can Pizza Tell Us About Ourselves?". Slate. ISSN 1091-2339. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ a b France-Press, Agence (June 13, 2025). "Pentagon pizza monitor predicted 'busy night' ahead of Israel's attack on Iran". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ a b Schafer, Sarah (December 19, 1998). "With Capital in Panic, Pizza Deliveries Soar". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ Cañas, Alejandro; Nelson, David (April 16, 2024). "What is the Pizza Meter? The signal that spiked on Saturday during Iran's attack on Israel". AS USA. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ a b Hogan, Fintan (June 16, 2025). "How to predict a global crisis: Pentagon pizza orders surge". The Times. Archived from the original on June 17, 2025. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ Kochi, Sudiksha (June 16, 2025). "Pentagon pizza account reported high activity before Israel's attack on Iran". USA TODAY. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ "'Potential overtime': Pizza orders around Pentagon spike before US strikes Iran". The Telegraph India. June 22, 2025.
- ^ Koch, Alexandra (June 21, 2025). "How a Papa Johns pizza surge near the Pentagon tipped off social media before Trump's decisive Iran strike". Fox News. Retrieved June 22, 2025.
- ^ Bickerton, James (June 14, 2025). "Pentagon pizza monitor appeared to predict Israel attack". Newsweek. Retrieved June 20, 2025.
- ^ Murphy, Aislinn (June 18, 2025). "Pentagon pizza theory resurfaces during Israel-Iran conflict as social media tracks orders". FOXBusiness. Retrieved June 20, 2025.