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Opinion polling for the 2025 Ecuadorian general election

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In the run up to the 2025 Ecuadorian general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Ecuador. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from 2024, almost a year into incumbent President Daniel Noboa's term to the day the run-off election, which was held on 13 April 2025. The data range also includes opinion polls conducted prior to the first round of voting, which was held 9 February 2025 and before official candidates were finalized.

Opinion polling

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Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour.

Run-off

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Date Polling source Sample size Margin
of error (+/-)
Daniel Noboa
(ADN)
Luisa González
(RC)
Null Blank Undecided Lead
3 Apr 2025 Comunicaliza 4,763 1.42% 41.5% 41.1% 8.0% 9.5% 0.4
3 Apr 2025 Telcodata 6,134 3% 49.8% 50.2% 0.4
3 Apr 2025 Tino Electoral 1,500 2% 52.4% 45.1% 2.5% 7.3
1 Apr 2025 TresPuntoZero 1,180 2.9% 45.1% 50.6% 4.1% 0.2% 5.5
25–30 Mar 2025 Pedro Cango[1] 5,422 1.5% 48.1% 51.9% 3.8
28 Mar 2025 Áltica[2] 700 3.7% 42.3% 44.1% 6.4% 7.2% 1.8
27 Mar 2025 MR Analitica 6,024 1.5% 42.98% 50.39% 6.63% 7.41
25 Mar 2025 Tino Electoral 800 2% 51.0% 45.9% 3.1% 5.1
24 Mar 2025 Negocios y Estrategias[3] 3,000 3% 48.55% 51.45% 2.9
23 Mar 2025 Run-off debate
3–20 Mar 2025 MR Analitica[4] 15,003 1.5% 43.10% 49.97% 6.92% 6.87
19 Mar 2025 Tino Electoral 1,500 2% 49.1% 46.2% 4.7% 2.9
9–12 Mar 2025 TresPuntoZero[5] 1,500 2.5% 45.2% 52.9% 0.3% 1.6% 7.7
26 Feb–3 Mar 2025 Negocios y Estrategias[6] 1,800 2.3% 44.78% 46.78% 8.44% 2.00
25 Feb–2 Mar 2025 MR Analitica[7] 5,143 1.5% 43.79% 49.75% 6.46% 5.96
14–22 Feb 2025 MR Analítica[8][9][10] 10,005 1.5% 43.24% 47.91% 8.85% 4.67
11–13 Feb 2025 TresPuntoZero[11][12] 1,000 3.2% 46.5% 50.6% 1.7% 1.2% 4.1
9 Feb 2025 First round
24 Jan 2025 Comunicaliza 5,217 1.36% 40.5% 35.2% 13.6% 10.7% 5.3
22 Jan 2025 Comunicaliza 2,782 1.86% 40.4% 35.6% 13.3% 10.8% 4.8
16 Jan 2025 Politiks Studio 1,200 3.1% 45% 47% 6% 2% 2
14 Jan 2025 TresPuntoZero 1,050 3% 43.0% 51.0% 2.7% 3.3% 8.0

First round

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Opinion polls conducted since the 2023 election are listed below. Results for candidates in first place are in bold and have their party color as a background. Results for candidates who would make it to a second round (if the first-placed candidate would not reach either 50% or 40% with a 10-point lead) are also in bold.

Date Polling source Sample size Margin
of error
Luisa González
(RC)
Daniel Noboa
(ADN)
Leonidas Iza
(MUPP)
Henry Kronfle
(PSC)
Pedro Granja
(PSE)
Jimmy Jairala
(MCD)
Henry Cucalón
(MC25)
Carlos Rabascall
(ID)
Victor Araus
(PID)
Andrea González
(PSP)
Enrique Gómez
(SUMA)
Francesco Tabacchi [es]
(CREO)
Jorge Escala
(UP)
Luis Tillería
(Avanza)
Juan Cueva'
(AMIGO)
Iván Saquicela [es]
(DSí [es])
Null Blank Undecided
The second round of the election between Luisa González and Daniel Noboa is scheduled for 13 April 2025.
12 March 2025 CNE Final Presidential results[13] 11,264,435 0.03% 44% 44.17%
18 Feb 2025 Consejo Nacional Electoral Preliminary Results [14] Available by 22 March 2025 43.97% 44.17% 5.25% 0.72% 0.53% 0.4% 0.36% 0.22% 0.25% 2.69% 0.18% 0.26% 0.4% 0.32% 0.17% 0.12% 6.8% 2.16 Nill
9 Feb 2025 5 p.m. (ECT) Diego Tello Flores Official Exit Poll "on behalf of Estrategas" [15] 28,220 2.98% 42.21% 50.12% 1.89% 0.70% 0.52% 0.42% 0.18% 0.16% 0.28% 1.98% 0.13% 0.16% 0.66% 0.41% 0.11% 0.06% Nill
30 Jan 2025 Negocios y Estrategias[16] 2,000 2.2% 48.5% 44.9% 6.6%
44.9% 41.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 7.4%
30 Jan 2025 Cedatos 3,650 2.2% 32.2% 48.6%
27.6% 41.4% 1.1% 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 6.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 9.3% 2.4% 2.5%
26 Jan 2025 Informe Confidencial 2,630 3% 29% 37% 2% 4% 6% 12% 5%
34.9% 44.6% 2.4% 4.8% 7.2%
24 Jan 2025 Ipsos 2,000 2.2% 31.3% 45.3% 2.4% 1.9% 5.1% 6.3% 2.9%
34.6% 50.0% 2.6% 2.1% 5.7%
24 Jan 2025 Communicaliza 5,217 1.36% 32.0% 38.1% 2.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 4.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 7.6% 11.5%
39.5% 47.1% 2.5% 5.3%
22 Jan 2025 Communicaliza 2,782 1.86% 32.4% 36.9% 1.8% 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 7.8% 11.4%
40.1% 45.7% 14.2%
22 Jan 2025 MR Analitica 2,010 42.20% 32.42% 4.88% 1.05% 4.46% 1.57% 0.73% 0.88% 0.07% 4.72% 0.37% 0.14% 3.15% 0.72% 1.15% 0.05%
39.70% 30.50% 4.10% 0.88% 3.75% 1.32% 0.62% 0.74% 0.06% 3.97% 0.31% 0.12% 2.65% 0.60% 0.97% 0.04% 5.92
21 Jan 2025 Negocios y Estrategias 2,000 2.2% 41% 36% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
19 Jan 2025 First round debate
18 Jan 2025 Cedatos 3,651 2.2% 29.6% 32.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 3.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 15.9% 3.2% 16.3%
31.9% 49.7% 2.6% 1.4% 1.1% 4.8% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 1.9% 0.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
16 Jan 2025 MR Analitica 3,950 2.5% 49.55% 39.52% 2.24% 0.39% 1.14% 1.05% 0.85% 0.17% 0.25% 0.62% 0.07% 0.11% 0.87% 1.05% 1.20% 0.00%
43.09% 34.37% 1.82% 0.31% 0.92% 0.85% 0.69% 0.14% 0.21% 0.50% 0.06% 0.09% 0.71% 0.85% 0.97% 0.00% 13.04%
16 Jan 2025 Politiks Studio 1,200 3.1% 44% 38% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 6%
14 Jan 2025 Trespuntozero 1,050 3.0% 48.0% 40.4% 1.4% 0.1% 1.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.00% 1.5%
12 Jan 2025 Informe Confidencial 13,000 3.0% 32% 37% 3% 2% 3% 13% 7%
11 Jan 2025 Comunicaliza 5,251 1.4% 33.0% 36.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 9.9% 13.9%
43.3% 47.3% 9.4%
8 Jan 2025 Negocios y Estrategias 1,300 2.7% 40% 34% 4% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%
29 Dec 2024 Comunicaliza 4,485 1.5% 29.3% 32.9% 2.5% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 8.9% 17.8%
22 Dec 2024 MR Analitica 9,000 2.0% 41.14% 32.32% 4.60% 3.53% 1.96% 3.72% 1.86% 0.98% 0.39% 1.47% 0.20% 0.29% 0.78% 2.55% 4.11% 0.10%
35.56% 27.24% 3.98% 3.05% 1.69% 3.22% 1.61% 0.85% 0.34% 1.27% 0.17% 0.25% 0.68% 2.20% 3.56% 0.08% 13.55%
20 Dec 2024 Cedatos 3,444 2.4% 32.5% 48.0% 2.3% 1.6% 0.3% 4.8% 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% 2.1% 0.6% 4.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
20.1% 29.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 3.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 19.7% 3.7% 14.6%
15 Dec 2024 Comunicaliza 4,486 1.5% 29.9% 32.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 10.4% 16.3%
14 Dec 2024 Bitar Consultores 10,269 0.03% 40.28% 38.05% 3.21% 10.38% 0.76% 1.81% 0.59% 0.51% 0.86% 0.64% 0.57% 0.87% 0.38% 0.33% 0.62% 0.12%
7 Dec 2024 Áltica 1,000 3.1% 45.5% 39.1% 4.2% 0.4% 1.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 4.5% 0.6% 0.4%
3 Dec 2024 Tino Electoral 4,000 32% 36% 7% 4% 13% 8%
25 Nov 2024 MR Analitica 4,667 2% 43.17% 29.2% 4.70% 1.42% 2.25% 3.53% 2.21% 0.56% 0.60% 1.11% 0.31% 0.32% 0.75% 2.61% 4.05% 0.02%
37.74% 25.37% 4.11% 1.24% 1.97% 3.08% 1.93% 0.49% 0.53% 0.97% 0.27% 0.28% 0.65% 2.29% 3.64% 0.02% 12.58%
24 Nov 2024 Informe Confidencial 2,930 3% 32% 34% 2% 1% 4% 2% 15% 6%
20 Nov 2024 Negocios y Estrategias 1,250 2.8% 45% 36% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
39% 31% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14%
12 Nov 2024 Comunicaliza 4,196 1.51% 28.8% 28.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 12.6% 20.3%

Pre-candidates

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Date Polling source Sample size Margin
of error
Daniel Noboa
(ADN)
Luisa González
(RC)
Gustavo Jalkh
(RC)
Pedro Granja [es]
(PSE)
Leonidas Iza
(MUPP)
Jan Topić
(SUMA)
Pedro Freile
(SUMA)
Henry Kronfle
(PSC)
Carlos Rabascall
(ID)
Andrea González
(PSP)
Victor Araus
(PID)
Jorge Escala
(UP)
Henry Cucalón
(MC25)
José Serrano
(MCD)
Luis Tillería
(Avanza)
Bolívar Armijos
(AMIGO)
Cristina Reyes
(Ind.)
Diana Salazar
(Ind.)
Others Null Blank Undecided
27 Sep 2024 CID Gallup[17] 1,200 2.8% 31% 26% 15% 1% 2% 4% 21%
22 Sep 2024 Informe Confidential[18] 29% 25% 3% 7% 2% 1% 6% 17% 10%
24 Aug 2024 Cedatos[19] 3,238 3.1% 48.6% 27.6% 1.3% 5.3% 7.7% 1.6% 1,5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 2,0%
19 Aug 2024 Negocios y Estrategias[20] 37% 41% 1% 2% 8% 0% 1% 1% 1% 9.9%
18 Aug 2024 Communicaliza[21] 4,971 1.39% 32.4% 25.4% 1.2% 2.6% 6.3% 1.4% 0,8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0,9% 9.9% 14.3%
5 Aug 2024 Maluk Research[22] 4,052 2.5% 25.27% 39.67% 3.86% 4.45% 2.57% 1,83% 2.50% 2.81% 2.95% 6.48% 3.16% 4.44%
22.83% 26.93% 5.75% 5.83% 3.70% 4,41% 3.07% 2.20% 4.72% 12.60% 3.07% 4.88% 7.03%
17 Jul 2024 Maluk Research[23] 4,793 2.5% 34.61% 40.11% 3.90% 4.07% 0.48% 3.10% 4.65% 1.74% 1.94% 5.39%
4 Jul 2024 Cedatos[24] 3,882 2.4% 35.2% 11.7% 3.4% 4.0% 5.9% 7.0% 2.0% 14.9% 3.6% 12.3%
36.6% 3.80% 3.5% 4.3% 5.4% 7.6% 11.4% 15.1% 4.4% 7.8%
28 Jun 2024 Maluk Research[25] 4,412 2.5% 32.49% 39.63% 5.21% 4.89% 1.16% 3.69% 1.04% 1.72% 2.73% 7.42%
13 Jun 2024 Maluk Research[26] 4,012 2.5% 32.37% 43.22% 4.98% 4.85% 1.02% 3.01% 1.18% 0.92% 1.33% 1.10% 6.03%
30 May 2024 Communicaliza[27] 39.8% 21.1% 1.0% 2.3% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 9.8% 20.5%
14 May 2024 Maluk Research[28] 4,012 2.5% 29.91% 47.75% 4.60% 1.89% 2.30% 2.79% 0.95% 0.00% 8.90% 0.37% 0.54%
15 Apr 2024 Maluk Research[29] 3,635 2.5% 30.31% 39.12% 5.13% 4.20% 3.71% 3.69% 1.68% 0.26% 8.93% 1.02% 1.96%

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Hablando claro con Nelson Salazar (2025-04-01). El final de Noboa. Nueva encuesta Luisa sigue liderando. Retrieved 2025-04-02 – via YouTube.
  2. ^ Áltica (31 March 2025). "Intención de Voto. Si el día de hoy fuera la elección para Presidente de Ecuador, ¿usted por cuál de estos candidatos votaría?". Retrieved 2025-03-31.
  3. ^ Negocios y Estrategias. "Encuesta N&E: Luisa se mantiene firme y al frente con 51,45% de intención de voto". Retrieved 2025-03-26.
  4. ^ Ecuador En Directo (2025-03-10). SI HOY FUERAN LAS ELECCIONES, LUISA GONZÁLEZ TENDRÍA 53,19% Y DANIEL NOBOA 46,81% D INTENCIÓN D VOTO. Retrieved 2025-03-23 – via YouTube.
  5. ^ Ecuador En Directo (2025-03-20). #LUISA #GONZÁLEZ 53,9% Y #DANIEL #NOBOA 46,1%. #LUISA HA #CRECIDO Y #NOBOA SE QUEDA #ATRÁS CON EL 7%. Retrieved 2025-03-23 – via YouTube.
  6. ^ "Luisa Gonzalez lidera con el 51.09 de intencion de voto a pocos dias de la campana electoral en Ecuador" (in Spanish). Confirmado.net. 3 March 2025. Retrieved 13 March 2025.
  7. ^ https://x.com/RComunitariosEc/status/1897379098336616667?t=7LS0TnVk5s43en87ubO81Q&s=08
  8. ^ En Retrospectiva (2025-02-25). LUISA GONZÁLEZ LIDERA las ENCUESTAS: MR la UBICA con el 52,56% vs. el 47,44% de DANIEL NOBOA. Retrieved 2025-02-26 – via YouTube.
  9. ^ Ecuador En Directo (2025-02-25). LUISA GONZÁLEZ TIENE 52,56% Y DANIEL NOBOA 47,44%EN VOTOS VÁLIDOS.NO HAY VOTOS PARA ALCANZAR A LUISA. Retrieved 2025-02-26 – via YouTube.
  10. ^ "▶️ 2da VUELTA🗳️ ENCUESTA NACIONAL". X. 2025-02-23. Retrieved 2025-02-24.
  11. ^ Ecuador En Directo (2025-02-17). #LUISA #GONZÁLEZ TIENE EN #INTENCIÓN DE VOTO EL 50,6% Y DANIEL NOBOA 46,5%.NOBOA YA LLEGÓ A SU TECHO. Retrieved 2025-02-19 – via YouTube.
  12. ^ Hablando Corto con Nelson Salazar (2025-02-18). ¿Por qué Luisa está mejor evaluada para la presidencia? Análisis con Shila Vilker. Retrieved 2025-02-19 – via YouTube.
  13. ^ "CNE proclama resultados de la primera vuelta: Daniel Noboa superó con 16.746 votos a Luisa González". Primicias. 2025-03-12. Retrieved 2025-03-26.
  14. ^ "Sistema Informático de Escrutinio y Resultados". resultados2025.cne.gob.ec. Retrieved 2025-02-20.
  15. ^ "'Exit poll': Diego Tello dice que Daniel Noboa lideraría la votación". Teleamazonas (in Spanish). 2025-02-09. Retrieved 2025-02-19.
  16. ^ "Negocios & Estrategias en LinkedIn: Presidenciales 30 de enero". es.linkedin.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 2025-02-01.
  17. ^ "Daniel Noboa y Luisa González encabezan nueva encuesta presidencial en Ecuador, con Jan Topic en tercer lugar". Primicias. 2024-09-27. Retrieved 2024-10-11.
  18. ^ Café la Posta (2024-10-03). Así quedó la papeleta presidencial de 2025 | La Presidencia de Veloz | Chequeo electoral. Retrieved 2024-10-11 – via YouTube.
  19. ^ "INFORME OPINIÓN ECUADOR AL 24 DE AGOSTO, 2024". Cedatos (in Spanish). 2024-08-24. Retrieved 2024-10-11.
  20. ^ "Negocios y Estrategias.jpg". Google Docs.
  21. ^ Teleamazonas Ecuador (2024-08-26). #EnVivo #Teleamazonas #Entrevistas. Retrieved 2024-10-11 – via YouTube.
  22. ^ https://malukresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/ENCUESTA-MENSUAL-NACIONAL-JULIO-AGOSTO-2024-LIBRE-EDICION.pdf
  23. ^ "Encuesta Julio 2024" (PDF) (in Spanish). Maluk Research. 17 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
  24. ^ "INFORME ESTUDIO OPINIÓN ECUADOR, A JULIO 4, 2024" (in Spanish). Cedatos. 4 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
  25. ^ La Contra (2024-07-02). 🔴 ¿CUÁL ES LA INTENCIÓN DE VOTO PARA PRESIDENTE? EVALUACIÓN DE CANDIDATOS SEGÚN CIFRAS | OMAR MALUK. Retrieved 2024-10-11 – via YouTube.
  26. ^ https://malukresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ENCUESTA-NACIONAL-QUINCENAL-JUNIO-2024.pdf
  27. ^ Café la Posta (2024-05-31). ¿El Gobierno ha tomado BUENAS DECISIONES?. Retrieved 2024-10-11 – via YouTube.
  28. ^ https://malukresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ENCUESTA-NACIONAL-MAYO2024.pdf
  29. ^ Paucar, Edison (2024-05-17). "Otra encuesta muestra que la desaprobación de Noboa llegó al 59,92%". RADIO PICHINCHA (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-10-11.