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Aging of Russia

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Population pyramid of Russia from 2020 to projections up to 2100

The demographic crisis of Russia is the aging and decline of the Russian population caused by demographic transition. Although most high-income and middle-income countries experience demographic transition, Russia does differ in that it has a high mortality rate and relatively low life expectancy.[1]

From 1992 to 2008 and again since 2020, Russia has experienced net population loss; the natural population decline has no longer been offset by a positive migration balance.[2] The demographic decline of Russia is likely to continue in the future, with the UN projecting Russia's population to shrink from 146 million in 2022 to 135.8 million by 2050.[3]

The median age risen significantly as a result of the demographic crisis, increasing from 32.2 in 1990 to 40.3 in 2025, in what has been the aging of Russia.[4] The number of senior citizens (i.e, those older than 65) has increased as well, rising from 10% in 1990 to 16.6% in 2023.[5]

History

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Total population of Russia 1950–2010

In the economic sphere

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The demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.[6]

With a reduced fertility rate, the load on the working population increases because each worker has to support more retirees.[7]

Demographic aging of the population

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See also: Demographics of Russia

Prior to First World War, the Russian Empire had the fastest growing population among world powers, only surpassed by the United States.[8] Despite demographic losses in the interwar period from the First World War, the Civil War, and the numerous famines, between 1920 and 1940, the RSFSR of the Soviet Union grew at a average of 1.11% per year and managed to surpass 100 million people.[9][10]

In the Second World War, the Eastern Front was one of the most costly theaters of the war, accounting up to 40 million of the 70–85 million deaths attributed to World War II.[11] The Soviet Union in particular had exceptionally heavily demographic damage, Russia alone losing as much as 13 million people.[10] Because young men bore the brunt of war losses, the war left Russia with a huge lack of men compared to women.[12] Even in 1959, men still made up less than 45% of the overall population.[10]

The age structure of the population of Russia, 1946-2023

Despite a relatively stable birth rate after the war, after the 1960s, Russia had begin to experience demographic ageing; the proportion of those 60 and older doubled between 1959 and 1990.[10][12]

Despite population aging, the population of Russia remained relatively young and had many women of childbearing age, which would compensate for fertility decline and thus continue population growth; the population increased by 45,760,000 people from 1951 to 1990.[10][12]

However, starting in the early 1990s, the aged structure of the population had eventually morphed in a way that would start prompting population decline not growth, and the fertility crash following the Soviet collapse only further enforced this.[12] This was not unique to Russia, and such issues have been felt in many developed countries and increasingly in many developing countries as well.[13]

Thousands of abandoned villages are scattered across Russia.[14]

Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences from the early 2000s, in 2016 elderly people aged 60 and over would have accounted for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years old would only have made up 17%. However, in Russia, in contrast to other countries, aging is limited by high mortality among older people.[15][16]

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See also: COVID-19 pandemic in Russia, Russian emigration following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian soldiers killed in war in Ukraine have further exacerbated Russia's demographic crisis.[17]
Total fertility rate in Russia, 1990—2024[18]

In 2020, over 500,000 deaths were attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, bringing the total deaths since its onset to approximately 700,000. Although 2021 was initially projected to have less impact on mortality, death rates still surpassed birth rates. President Vladimir Putin's plan to overturn the stagnation was announced in 2017 in response to the downward trend. However the plan only partially helped in their demographic crisis and was hindered by the Pandemic, despite showing signs of recovery.

Historical population
YearPop.±% p.a.
1897 67,473,000—    
1926 93,459,000+1.13%
1939 108,377,000+1.15%
1959 117,534,000+0.41%
1970 130,079,000+0.93%
1979 137,552,000+0.62%
1989 147,386,000+0.69%
2002 145,166,731−0.12%
2010 142,856,836−0.20%
2015 144,985,057+0.30%
2019 146,764,655+0.31%
2020 146,171,015−0.40%
2021 146,000,460−0.12%
Source:[19][20][failed verification][21]

The natural population declined by 997,000 between October 2020 and September 2021 (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a period).[22] The natural death rate in January 2020, 2021, and 2022 have each been nearly double the natural birth rate.[23]

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the demographic crisis in the country has deepened,[24] as the country has reportedly suffered high military fatalities while facing renewed brain drain and human capital flight caused by Western mass-sanctions and boycotts.[25] Many commentators predict that the situation will be worse than during the 1990s.[26]

In March 2023, The Economist reported that "Over the past three years the country has lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war [in Ukraine], disease and exodus."[27]

According to Russian economist Alexander Isakov, "Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties."[28] Russian journalist Andrey Kolesnikov noted that "We are seeing a phenomenon Russia has faced many times: wave after wave of wars and repression that drain away human resources."[29]

The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia’s population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.[30][27]

In January 2024, the Russian statistics agency Rosstat predicted that Russia’s population could drop to 130 million by 2046, in a worst-case scenario.[31] The UN's 2024 scenarios project Russia's population to be between 74 million and 112 million in 2100, a decline of 25 to 50%.[32]

Reactions

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Many Russian politicians have called for the reinstating of the childless tax in Russia that it used to have from the 1940s until the 1990s, due to declining birth rates.

In August 2022, Russia revived the Soviet-era Mother Heroine award for women with ten children.[33][34][35]

In November 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law that bans 'Childfree Propaganda’ to boost birthrates in Russia.[36] On the same year, in a decree for national development goals, Putin set a life expectancy target of 81 years by 2036, an update from an earlier goal of 78 years by 2030.[37]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia". OSW Centre for Eastern Studies. 2024-07-03. Retrieved 2025-06-12.
  2. ^ "Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia". OSW Centre for Eastern Studies. 2024-07-03. Retrieved 2025-06-10.
  3. ^ "Russia's rapidly approaching demographic crisis – GIS Reports". 2022-01-31. Retrieved 2025-06-10.
  4. ^ "Russia - median age of the population 2100". Statista. Retrieved 2025-06-19.
  5. ^ "Population ages 65 and above for the Russian Federation". fred.stlouisfed.org. 2024-12-17. Retrieved 2025-06-26.
  6. ^ Старостин, Алексей. "Свобода перемещения трудовых ресурсов в ЕАЭС к 2025 году". russiancouncil.ru (in Russian). Archived from the original on 2023-09-29. Retrieved 2022-02-06.
  7. ^ Berriault, Lea (2022-01-31). "Russia's demographic setback". GIS Reports. Archived from the original on 2023-10-05. Retrieved 2023-01-15.
  8. ^ "Russia - Transformation of Russia in the Nineteenth Century". countrystudies.us. Retrieved 2025-06-10.
  9. ^ "How Russia's population changed over the years". TASS. Retrieved 2025-06-10.
  10. ^ a b c d e Ryazantsev, S. V.; Rybakovskii, L. L. (2021). "Demographic Development of Russia in the 20th‒21st Centuries: Historical and Geopolitical Dimensions". Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 91 (5): 516–524. Bibcode:2021HRuAS..91..516R. doi:10.1134/S1019331621050075. ISSN 1555-6492. PMC 8562029. PMID 34744395.
  11. ^ "Eastern Front". The American Heritage Museum. Retrieved 2025-06-12.
  12. ^ a b c d Adamson, David M.; DaVanzo, Julie (1997-01-01). Russia's Demographic 'Crisis': How Real Is It? (Report).
  13. ^ "The EU is ageing and in need of care - here's what that might mean for its economic future". World Economic Forum. Archived from the original on 2023-09-30. Retrieved 2023-01-15.
  14. ^ "Russia's decaying villages". Al Jazeera. 2 May 2014. Archived from the original on 1 July 2023. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  15. ^ "Russia's Demographic Crisis". www.wilsoncenter.org. 7 July 2011. Archived from the original on 2017-07-05. Retrieved 2023-01-15.
  16. ^ Timonin, Sergey; Klimkin, Ilya; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.; Andreev, Evgeny; McKee, Martin; Leon, David A. (March 2022). "Excess mortality in Russia and its regions compared to high income countries: An analysis of monthly series of 2020". SSM - Population Health. 17: 101006. doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.101006. ISSN 2352-8273. PMC 8717231. PMID 35005187.
  17. ^ "Russia's 'catastrophic' missing men problem". The Week. 10 May 2023. Archived from the original on 28 November 2023. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  18. ^ "Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости" [Total Fertility Rate]. Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System of Russia (in Russian). Retrieved 27 May 2025.
  19. ^ "RUSSIA: historical demographical data of the whole country". Populstat.info. Archived from the original on 7 July 2017. Retrieved 6 July 2017.
  20. ^ Оценка численности постоянного населения на 1 января 2020 года и в среднем за 2019 год [Preliminary estimated population as of 1 January 2020 and on the average for 2019] (XLS). Rosstat (in Russian). Archived from the original on 13 November 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2021.
  21. ^ "Population of Russia 2022 | Religion in Russia". 3 May 2021. Archived from the original on 8 December 2022. Retrieved 20 December 2021.
  22. ^ Sauer, Pjotr (13 October 2021). "Russia's population undergoes largest ever peacetime decline". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 13 October 2021. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  23. ^ "Natural population decrease in Russia down by 21% in Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021, but twice higher than in Jan 2020 - Rosstat". Interfax News Agency. 6 March 2022. Archived from the original on 12 December 2023. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  24. ^ "Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die". The Telegraph. 26 February 2023. Archived from the original on 30 December 2023. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  25. ^ Cocco, Federica; Ivanonva, Polina (4 April 2022). "Ukraine war threatens to deepen Russia's demographic crisis". Financial Times. London. Archived from the original on 10 December 2022. Retrieved 6 October 2022.
  26. ^ Goble, Paul (18 August 2022). "Russia's Demographic Collapse Is Accelerating". Eurasia Daily Monitor. 19 (127). Washington, D.C.: Jamestown Foundation. Archived from the original on 21 October 2023. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  27. ^ a b "Russia's population nightmare is going to get even worse". The Economist. 4 March 2023. Archived from the original on 11 March 2023. Retrieved 1 July 2023.
  28. ^ "Putin's War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia". Bloomberg. 18 October 2022. Archived from the original on 2023-10-12. Retrieved 2023-07-01.
  29. ^ Kolesnikov, Andrei (8 February 2023). "Russia's Second, Silent War Against Its Human Capital". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  30. ^ "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Population, as of 1 January column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022. Archived from the original on 2022-07-11. Retrieved 2023-07-01.
  31. ^ "Russia's Population Could Fall to 130Mln by 2046 – Rosstat". The Moscow Times. 12 January 2024. Archived from the original on 14 January 2024. Retrieved 14 January 2024.
  32. ^ "World Population Prospects 2024". United Nations. p. 16.
  33. ^ "Putin revives Stalin-era 'Mother Heroine' award for women with 10 children". CNN. 2022-08-18. Archived from the original on 2023-02-17. Retrieved 2023-06-19.
  34. ^ "Putin revives Soviet 'Mother Heroine' award for women who have 10 children". The Washington Post. 17 August 2022. Archived from the original on 19 August 2022.
  35. ^ Reid, Jenni (2022-08-18). "Russia is offering a hero's medal and $16,000 to women who have 10 kids". CNBC. Retrieved 2023-06-19.
  36. ^ "Putin signs 'child-free propaganda' bill into law".
  37. ^ "Putin Wants Russians to Live Longer as Demographic Crisis Grows". Bloomberg.com. Archived from the original on 2024-06-09. Retrieved 2025-06-21.

Literature

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