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2024 Iran–Pakistan conflict

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2024 Iran–Pakistan conflict
Part of the insurgency in Balochistan and Sistan and Baluchestan insurgency

Location of Iran (green) and Pakistan (orange)
Date16 January – 18 January 2024
(2 days)
Location
Balochistan, Pakistan
Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
Result

Inconclusive

  • Both sides agree to a ceasefire
Belligerents
Iran
Claimed by Pakistan:
Baloch Nationalists:
Balochistan Liberation Army
Balochistan Liberation Front		 Pakistan
Claimed by Iran:
Jihadists:
Jaish ul-Adl
Commanders and leaders
Ali Khamenei
Ebrahim Raisi
Hossein Salami
Bashir Zeb
Allah Nazar Baloch		 Arif Alvi
Anwar ul-Haq Kakar (caretaker)
Anwar Ali Hyder
Sahir Mirza
Zaheer Ahmad Babar
Salahuddin Farooqui
Units involved
Iranian Armed Forces
 Pakistan Armed Forces
Casualties and losses
9 foreign nationals killed in Iran (18 January)[1][2]
2 killed and 4 wounded in Pakistan (16 January)[3]

On 16 January 2024, Iran conducted a series of missile strikes in Pakistan, asserting that it had targeted militants of the Baloch separatist group Jaish ul-Adl in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. This attack occurred one day after a similar series of Iranian missile strikes in Iraq and Syria, which the Iranian government had stated were in response to the Kerman bombings by the Islamic State on 3 January. Pakistan's government condemned the strikes as an "unprovoked violation" of Pakistani airspace.

Two days later, on 18 January, Pakistan conducted a retaliatory series of missile strikes in Iran, asserting that it had targeted militants of the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan. Iran's government condemned the strikes and stated that nine people had been killed, including four children. Pakistani airstrikes marked the first known instance of a foreign country launching attacks on Iranian soil since the end of Iran–Iraq War in 1988.[4]

Communicating through diplomatic channels on 19 January, both countries agreed to de-escalate and cooperate along the Iran–Pakistan border. Pakistan recalled the Iranian ambassador to Islamabad and reinstated the Pakistani ambassador in Tehran.[5]

Foreign Minister of Iran Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Pakistan on 29 January 2024 at the invitation of Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani in a push to diffuse the standoff.[6]

Background

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Iran–Pakistan border

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Main article: Insurgency in Balochistan

The Iran–Pakistan border, spanning across Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan and Pakistan's Balochistan, faces significant challenges due to its high porosity, making it susceptible to extensive smuggling and terrorist activities, primarily orchestrated by Baloch insurgents.[7] Despite maintaining a generally positive relationship, both countries have consistently accused each other of harboring terrorists and falling short in ensuring security on their respective sides of the border. These concerns prompted the establishment of the Iran–Pakistan border barrier, with construction commencing on the Iranian fortifications in 2011 and on the Pakistani fortifications in 2019.[8][9][10]

Iranian missile strikes in Iraq and Syria

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Main articles: 2024 Kerman bombings and 2024 Erbil attack

On 15 January 2024, Iran launched a barrage of 15 missiles directed at Iraq and Syria. Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, suffered most from the assault, with all but four missiles hitting the city. The remaining four struck Syria's Idlib Governorate, specifically targeting areas under the control of the Syrian opposition.[11][12]

The Iranian government asserted that it aimed to strike Israel in Iraq by destroying the regional headquarters of Mossad. However, both the Iraqi government and the autonomous Kurdish government refuted this claim and condemned the attack. The Iranian missile attack occurred almost two weeks after the Kerman bombings, for which the Islamic State claimed responsibility.

Iranian missile strikes in Pakistan

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Main article: 2024 Iranian missile strikes in Pakistan

After conducting airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran targeted Koh-e-Sabz, a locality in the Panjgur District of Pakistan's Balochistan province, which resulted in the death of two Pakistani nationals. Pakistan swiftly denounced the attack, taking diplomatic measures by expelling the Iranian ambassador from Islamabad, recalling its own ambassador from Tehran, and issuing a stern warning to Iran regarding potential retaliatory actions.

Iran justified its actions by claiming that it had aimed at Jaish ul-Adl, a Baloch insurgent group involved in the Sistan and Baluchestan insurgency. This group had previously claimed responsibility for the 2019 Khash–Zahedan suicide bombing that targeted the IRGC.

Pakistani strikes in Iran

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Main article: Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar

On 18 January, In a tit for tat move, Pakistan launched a retaliatory strike, codenamed Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar, carried out by the Pakistan Air Force against seven targets of the Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front terrorists in the Saravan city of Sistan and Baluchestan province of Iran.[13][14] Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi claimed nine foreign nationals were killed, including three women, four children and two men.[15] Such Pakistani strikes were the first known instances of attacks on Iranian soil since the end of the Iran–Iraq War.[16]

Aftermath

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Communicating through diplomatic channels on 19 January, both countries agreed to de-escalate and cooperate along the Iran–Pakistan border. Pakistan recalled the Iranian ambassador to Islamabad and reinstated the Pakistani ambassador in Tehran.[5]

Foreign Minister of Iran Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Pakistan on 29 January 2024 at the invitation of Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani in a push to diffuse the standoff.[6]

Analysis

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According to the Atlantic Council, Pakistan's strikes against Iran were "well-measured" and left Iran "dazed and shocked." The Council goes on to state that Iran reluctantly agreed to de-escalate because it feared a military humiliation in the event of armed conflict with Pakistan due to Pakistan's traditional Western and Chinese military aid.[17]

According to an article by The SAIS Review of International Affairs, China played a major role to mediate the conflict because of its long-standing partnership with both Iran and Pakistan. The article goes on to state that China values a cordial relationship between Iran and Pakistan to maintain its commercial interests in Central and South Asia.[18] China has invested billions of dollars into Pakistan through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, in which it aims to connect itself to the Arabian Sea and build stronger trade networks with the Middle East.[19] Moreover, China is Iran's largest buyer of oil despite international sanctions against Iran, and it signed the Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program in 2021, which states that China will invest a large sum of US$400 billion in Iran's economy over that period.[20] However, Michael Kugelman, an American foreign policy expert on South Asia, believes that Pakistan and Iran had enough of a pre-existing cordial relationship to resolve the conflict, and China simply provided a forum to ensure regional cooperation between the two nations.[21]

In an article for Chatham House, Chietigji Bajpaee, senior research fellow for Chatham House's South Asia and Asia-Pacific programme, notes that Iran's actions against Pakistan are not directly connected to its actions in the Middle East due to the historically friendly relations between the two countries. Bajpaee notes that both Iran and Pakistan have worked to stabilize Afghanistan and put an end to the Afghan conflict. As a result of these factors, Bajpaee concludes that neither country sought a broader conflict; Iran was already tied up in the Middle Eastern crisis and suffering from an economic crisis, while Pakistan had to address an economic crisis, an upcoming general election, and political unrest.[22]

According to Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert on South Asia at the US Institute of Peace, Iran's strikes against Pakistan potentially signaled a threat to rethink its alignment with the United States and not to provide any aid to the U.S. that could be used to counter Iran or its proxies.[23] Mir further notes that Iran's refusal to retaliate against Pakistan's strikes on its territory signal that it wishes to avoid a tit-for-tat cycle of conflict with Pakistan, particularly because of Pakistan's superior military and such a conflict would allow Pakistan to regularly violate Iran's sovereignty and erode Iran's ability to deter other adversaries.[23]

According to Madiha Afzal, fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, Iran's strikes united a politically polarized Pakistani society, and Pakistan's retaliatory strike "seems to have satisfied the Pakistani political class and public."[23]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Mao, Frances; Davies, Caroline; Adams, Paul (18 January 2024). "Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes into Iran, killing nine people". BBC News. Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  2. ^ "Pakistan Unleashes Retaliatory Strikes in Iran, Killing Nine". The Daily Beast. 18 January 2024. Archived from the original on 19 January 2024. Retrieved 18 January 2024. The Baluch Liberation Army, an ethnic separatist group, said the strikes had killed its members. "Pakistan will have to pay a price for it," the organization said
  3. ^ "Pakistan recalls its ambassador to Iran over airstrikes by Tehran that killed 2 people". AP News. Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  4. ^ Cordall, Simon Speakman. "'Credibility at stake': Why did Iran strike inside Pakistan amid Gaza war?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  5. ^ a b "Pakistan, Iran agree to 'de-escalate' tensions after tit-for-tat attacks". Al Jazeera. 19 January 2025. Retrieved 2 July 2025.
  6. ^ a b "Iranian FM in Pakistan to mend ties following mutual air strikes". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2 July 2025.
  7. ^ "Iran To Seal Off Porous Borders With Afghanistan, Pakistan To Beef Up Security". Iran Front Page. 5 January 2024. Archived from the original on 18 January 2024. Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  8. ^ "Iran constructing fence on Pakistan border". The Express Tribune. 16 April 2011. Archived from the original on 26 November 2022.
  9. ^ Qureshi, Zubair (23 February 2019). "Pakistan to fence 950km of border with Iran". Gulf News. Archived from the original on 18 January 2024. Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  10. ^ Baabar, Mariana (19 July 2019). "Pakistan, Iran agree on border fencing". www.thenews.com.pk. Archived from the original on 18 January 2024.
  11. ^ "Iran's IRGC says it hit alleged Mossad, ISIS targets in Iraq, Syria with 24 missiles". Al Arabiya English. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
  12. ^ "Iran launches missile strikes in Iraq and Syria citing security threats". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
  13. ^ "Pakistan launches retaliatory air strikes inside Iran as tensions rise". TRT World. 18 January 2024. Archived from the original on 18 January 2024.
  14. ^ "Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar". Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Government of Pakistan. 18 January 2024. Archived from the original on 18 January 2024. Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  15. ^ Siddiqui, Usaid. "Pakistan-Iran attacks updates: 9 killed near Iran's southeast border". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  16. ^ Cordall, Simon Speakman. "'Credibility at stake': Why did Iran strike inside Pakistan amid Gaza war?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  17. ^ Dagres, Holly (26 January 2024). "A miscalculated aggression: How Pakistan's response exposed Iran's vulnerabilities". Atlantic Council. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
  18. ^ "From Balochistan to Beyond: How Iran emerged as a Senior Partner to Pakistan - The SAIS Review of International Affairs". saisreview.sais.jhu.edu. 6 November 2024. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
  19. ^ Karim, Umer (2023). "The Pakistan–Iran relationship and the changing nature of regional and domestic security and strategic interests". Global Discourse. 13 (1): 20–38. doi:10.1332/204378921x16585144068826. ISSN 2043-7897.
  20. ^ "Iran and China sign 25-year cooperation agreement". Reuters. 27 March 2021. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
  21. ^ Kugelman, Michael (4 June 2025). "Tensions Rise on Pakistan's Borders". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
  22. ^ "Iran–Pakistan tensions: Why further escalation is unlikely | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank". www.chathamhouse.org. 13 May 2025. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
  23. ^ a b c Ioanes, Ellen (19 January 2024). "The Iran-Pakistan strikes aren't about Gaza. They're still alarming". Vox. Retrieved 2 June 2025.
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